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Sha Tin · 2020-02-23

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SEATTLE CHOICE Closed strongly 1.21.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard 3 1.9 3-1/2
2 0 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED Closed strongly B H Bowman · J Moore 8 5.2 3-1/2
3 0 HIGH RISE SOLDIER Closed strongly B/H C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 14.0 3-3/4
4 0 SMOOTHIES Led early TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 4 155.0 4-1/2
5 0 FOLLOW ME Closed strongly TT R Moore · J Size 10 9.4 5
6 0 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B/H M L Yeung · W Y So 14 150.0 5
7 0 GAMEPLAYER TIMES Closed strongly XB1 A Badel · D J Whyte 2 64.0 6-1/4
8 0 GLENEALY GENERALS K Teetan · C H Yip 9 11.0 6-1/2
9 0 HOME MADE B/TT- H N Wong · Y S Tsui 5 224.0 7
10 0 CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris 11 15.0 7
11 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR CP/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 7 10.0 7-1/2
12 0 UNICORNBABY B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 12 34.0 8-1/2
13 0 SALTO OLIMPICO B M Chadwick · D J Hall 6 256.0 9-3/4
14 0 FLYING ON THE TURF CP K C Leung · K H Ting 13 84.0 10
— 0 LOOKING GOOD K H Chan · F C Lor — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-23 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SEATTLE CHOICE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 3-1/2, with TAKE WHAT YOU NEED second and HIGH RISE SOLDIER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SEATTLE CHOICE—2. TAKE WHAT YOU NEED+3.5L3. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+3.75L4. SMOOTHIES+4.5L5. FOLLOW ME+5L6. HANG'S DECISION+5L7. GAMEPLAYER TIMES+6.25L8. GLENEALY GENERALS+6.5L9. HOME MADE+7L10. CHARIZARD+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SEATTLE CHOICE (28.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SEATTLE CHOICE 28.2% 3.55 1
2 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 11.9% 8.39 11
3 0 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 11.7% 8.54 2
4 0 GAMEPLAYER TIMES 9.9% 10.10 7
5 0 CHARIZARD 8.5% 11.81 10
6 0 GLENEALY GENERALS 6.6% 15.14 8
7 0 UNICORNBABY 6.3% 15.97 12
8 0 FOLLOW ME 5.8% 17.38 5
9 0 FLYING ON THE TURF 2.8% 35.19 14
10 0 SALTO OLIMPICO 2.4% 41.04 13
11 0 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 2.3% 42.87 3
12 0 HANG'S DECISION 1.4% 69.51 6
13 0 SMOOTHIES 1.3% 76.51 4
14 0 HOME MADE 0.8% 118.66 9
SEATTLE CHOICE — wonSUNSHINE WARRIORTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDGAMEPLAYER TIMESCHARIZARDGLENEALY GENERALSUNICORNBABYFOLLOW MEFLYING ON THE TURFSALTO OLIMPICOHIGH RISE SOLDIERHANG'S DECISIONSMOOTHIESHOME MADE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 19

PLACE

3 17.5

5 12

10 32

QUINELLA

3,5 47.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 25

3,10 113

5,10 55.5

TIERCE

5,3,10 660

TRIO

3,5,10 170

FIRST 4

3,5,7,10 2,741

QUARTET

5,3,10,7 14,210

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 16

A3 —

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

12/3 306.5

12/5 743.5