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Sha Tin · 2020-02-23

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CASIMIRO, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by SH, with JUNEAU PARK second and CIRCUIT HASSLER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 CASIMIRO Closed strongly 1.22.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 3 2.2 SH
2 5 JUNEAU PARK Led early J Moreira · J Size 14 5.4 SH
3 2 CIRCUIT HASSLER Closed strongly B/H/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 13 9.7 1-1/4
4 8 TREASURE CHEST CP1 H W Lai · P F Yiu 10 107.0 2-3/4
5 1 ROMAN IMPERO Closed strongly B K H Chan · C H Yip 11 14.0 3-1/4
5 4 KING DRAGON Closed strongly B1 A Badel · K L Man 12 11.0 3-1/4
7 6 DRAGON PRIDE C Schofield · A T Millard 4 20.0 4-3/4
8 3 ARDENODE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · W Y So 8 190.0 5-1/4
9 7 TATTENHALL FORTUNE H C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 50.0 5-1/2
10 14 WONDER EXPRESS TT K C Leung · K H Ting 9 10.0 5-3/4
11 13 V CHEVALIERS H/P H T Mo · L Ho 2 58.0 6-1/4
12 10 BLINK OF A SECOND Closed strongly H/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 7 348.0 9-1/4
13 12 THE ONE B/TT- G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 6 9.1 9-1/2
14 11 DRAGON BOLT B M F Poon · F C Lor 5 250.0 17-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CASIMIRO2. JUNEAU PARK+0.1L3. CIRCUIT HASSLER+1.25L4. TREASURE CHEST+2.75L5. ROMAN IMPERO+3.25L5. KING DRAGON+3.25L7. DRAGON PRIDE+4.75L8. ARDENODE+5.25L9. TATTENHALL FORTUNE+5.5L10. WONDER EXPRESS+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CASIMIRO (25.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 CASIMIRO 25.4% 3.93 1
2 5 JUNEAU PARK 25.1% 3.99 2
3 4 KING DRAGON 9.7% 10.36 5
4 2 CIRCUIT HASSLER 7.5% 13.40 3
5 12 THE ONE 6.0% 16.55 13
6 14 WONDER EXPRESS 5.8% 17.22 10
7 1 ROMAN IMPERO 4.9% 20.47 5
8 7 TATTENHALL FORTUNE 4.7% 21.38 9
9 6 DRAGON PRIDE 3.8% 26.19 7
10 8 TREASURE CHEST 2.3% 44.37 4
11 13 V CHEVALIERS 1.9% 53.39 11
12 3 ARDENODE 1.4% 72.94 8
13 11 DRAGON BOLT 1.1% 93.46 14
14 10 BLINK OF A SECOND 0.6% 167.83 12
CASIMIRO — wonJUNEAU PARKKING DRAGONCIRCUIT HASSLERTHE ONEWONDER EXPRESSROMAN IMPEROTATTENHALL FORTUNEDRAGON PRIDETREASURE CHESTV CHEVALIERSARDENODEDRAGON BOLTBLINK OF A SECOND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 22

PLACE

2 22.5

5 22

9 12

QUINELLA

5,9 65

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 78.5

2,9 46.5

5,9 32

TIERCE

9,5,2 708

TRIO

2,5,9 149

FIRST 4

2,5,8,9 3,271

QUARTET

9,5,2,8 23,476

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 15.5

A2

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

4/5 36

4/9 58

TRIPLE TRIO

5,8,13/2,4,13/2,5,9 1,711,927

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,8,13/2,4,13/Any Combination 5,273