沙田 · 2020-02-23
第 6場
2020-02-23沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的CASIMIRO勝出，贏出SH。JUNEAU PARK獲得亞軍；CIRCUIT HASSLER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.2倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CASIMIRO 後段發力 1.22.36 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 2.2 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | JUNEAU PARK 早段領放 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 14 | 5.4 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | CIRCUIT HASSLER 後段發力 B/H/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz | B Shinn | A S Cruz | 13 | 9.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | TREASURE CHEST CP1 H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 10 | 107.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | ROMAN IMPERO 後段發力 B K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 11 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | KING DRAGON 後段發力 B1 A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 12 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | DRAGON PRIDE C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 4 | 20.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | ARDENODE 後段發力 TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 8 | 190.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | TATTENHALL FORTUNE H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 50.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | WONDER EXPRESS TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 9 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | V CHEVALIERS H/P H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 2 | 58.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | BLINK OF A SECOND 後段發力 H/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 7 | 348.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 12 | THE ONE B/TT- G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 6 | 9.1 | 9-1/2 |
| 14 | 11 | DRAGON BOLT B M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 5 | 250.0 | 17-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CASIMIRO | 25.4% | 3.93 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | JUNEAU PARK | 25.1% | 3.99 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | KING DRAGON | 9.7% | 10.36 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | CIRCUIT HASSLER | 7.5% | 13.40 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | THE ONE | 6.0% | 16.55 | 13 |
| 6 | 14 | WONDER EXPRESS | 5.8% | 17.22 | 10 |
| 7 | 1 | ROMAN IMPERO | 4.9% | 20.47 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | TATTENHALL FORTUNE | 4.7% | 21.38 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | DRAGON PRIDE | 3.8% | 26.19 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | TREASURE CHEST | 2.3% | 44.37 | 4 |
| 11 | 13 | V CHEVALIERS | 1.9% | 53.39 | 11 |
| 12 | 3 | ARDENODE | 1.4% | 72.94 | 8 |
| 13 | 11 | DRAGON BOLT | 1.1% | 93.46 | 14 |
| 14 | 10 | BLINK OF A SECOND | 0.6% | 167.83 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 22
PLACE
2 22.5
5 22
9 12
QUINELLA
5,9 65
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 78.5
2,9 46.5
5,9 32
TIERCE
9,5,2 708
TRIO
2,5,9 149
FIRST 4
2,5,8,9 3,271
QUARTET
9,5,2,8 23,476
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 15.5
A2 —
全部彩池（另 3 項）
5TH DOUBLE
4/5 36
4/9 58
TRIPLE TRIO
5,8,13/2,4,13/2,5,9 1,711,927
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
5,8,13/2,4,13/Any Combination 5,273