Sha Tin · 2020-02-23

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-23 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. MR ALDAN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with MONICA second and ENZEMBLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite MONICA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.24

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	12	MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT 1.34.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	13	118 lb	13.0	1-1/4
2	1	MONICA Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · J Moore	J Moreira	J Moore	8	133 lb	3.3	1-1/4
3	10	ENZEMBLE Closed strongly H/XB G van Niekerk · D J Whyte	G van Niekerk	D J Whyte	12	121 lb	4.1	2-1/2
4	4	SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · K H Ting	C Schofield	K H Ting	6	125 lb	5.8	2-1/2
5	3	REEL BIZZY Closed strongly B/TT- M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	1	124 lb	19.0	2-1/2
6	6	SMART PATCH Closed strongly B A Badel · K L Man	A Badel	K L Man	9	124 lb	6.4	2-3/4
7	2	BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz	K C Leung	A S Cruz	10	132 lb	37.0	2-3/4
8	8	SUPER FAST Closed strongly CP1 Z Purton · K L Man	Z Purton	K L Man	4	122 lb	10.0	3
9	13	GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR L Hewitson · D E Ferraris	L Hewitson	D E Ferraris	11	117 lb	39.0	3
10	7	COBY BA H C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	14	123 lb	125.0	10-1/2
11	9	EARTH TRILOGY Led early CP/XB/TT K H Chan · J Moore	K H Chan	J Moore	5	111 lb	18.0	14
12	14	TOP MILITARY M L Yeung · T P Yung	M L Yeung	T P Yung	3	116 lb	375.0	16-1/2
13	5	ARCATRAZ B/XB H N Wong · J Moore	H N Wong	J Moore	2	121 lb	290.0	20
14	11	LIGHT MY DAY M Chadwick · C H Yip	M Chadwick	C H Yip	7	120 lb	258.0	20-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick MONICA (21.6%) finished 2nd — the winner MR ALDAN was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	MONICA	21.6%	4.63	2	3.3
2	4	SUPER ELEGANCE	16.9%	5.92	4	5.8
3	10	ENZEMBLE	15.5%	6.43	3	4.1
4	6	SMART PATCH	13.8%	7.27	6	6.4
5	3	REEL BIZZY	9.5%	10.58	5	19.0
6	8	SUPER FAST	8.3%	12.02	8	10.0
7	12	MR ALDAN	5.8%	17.28	1	13.0
8	2	BEAUTY SPIRIT	2.9%	34.99	7	37.0
9	9	EARTH TRILOGY	1.5%	68.27	11	18.0
10	13	GO BALLISTIC	1.1%	91.53	9	39.0
11	7	COBY BA	1.1%	92.91	10	125.0
12	11	LIGHT MY DAY	0.8%	123.27	14	258.0
13	5	ARCATRAZ	0.7%	142.11	13	290.0
14	14	TOP MILITARY	0.7%	153.38	12	375.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 139

PLACE

1 15.5

10 17

12 37

QUINELLA

1,12 269

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 31.5

1,12 93.5

10,12 106

TIERCE

12,1,10 3,050

TRIO

1,10,12 316

FIRST 4

1,4,10,12 369

QUARTET

12,1,10,4 12,669

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 25

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,10/1,10,12 6,917

9TH DOUBLE

5/1 10.5

5/12 332

SIX UP

4/9/1/12/5/12 448,286

4,13/5,9/1,2/6,12/3,5/1,12 399

5 [K Teetan] —

TREBLE

12/5/1 623

12/5/12 7,543

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