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Sha Tin · 2020-02-23

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOOD BEAUTY CP/TT 1.09.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore 1 3.6 1/2
2 0 STAR LUCK H N Wong · F C Lor 12 10.0 1/2
3 0 ALL IN MIND XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 11 9.2 1
4 0 UNIQUE TREASURE H-/P1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 6 164.0 1-1/2
5 0 VICTORIAM J Moreira · K W Lui 13 2.4 2
6 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE H/P/TT H T Mo · R Gibson 5 92.0 2
7 0 SPECIAL STARS A Badel · J Size 3 64.0 2
8 0 GRATEFUL HEART CP1/TT1 G van Niekerk · C S Shum 4 4.2 2-3/4
9 0 HERCULES L Hewitson · C H Yip 9 99.0 3-1/4
10 0 LUCKY PUZZLE H-/SR1 M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 8 102.0 7
11 0 FEARLESS FIRE B C Y Ho · C Fownes 14 43.0 7-3/4
12 0 STAY CHILL H W Lai · W Y So 7 255.0 10-1/4
13 0 SUPER JUNIOR V/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 2 179.0 14-1/4
14 0 BRAVE KING B1 B Shinn · D J Whyte 10 228.0 18-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-23 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOOD BEAUTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by 1/2, with STAR LUCK second and ALL IN MIND third. The 2.4 favourite VICTORIAM finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD BEAUTY—2. STAR LUCK+0.5L3. ALL IN MIND+1L4. UNIQUE TREASURE+1.5L5. VICTORIAM+2L6. RIGHT HONOURABLE+2L7. SPECIAL STARS+2L8. GRATEFUL HEART+2.75L9. HERCULES+3.25L10. LUCKY PUZZLE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GOOD BEAUTY (26.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOOD BEAUTY 26.1% 3.83 1
2 0 VICTORIAM 23.7% 4.22 5
3 0 ALL IN MIND 10.5% 9.49 3
4 0 GRATEFUL HEART 9.5% 10.54 8
5 0 STAR LUCK 5.7% 17.46 2
6 0 SPECIAL STARS 4.7% 21.41 7
7 0 FEARLESS FIRE 4.5% 22.27 11
8 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 4.5% 22.41 6
9 0 BRAVE KING 3.3% 30.70 14
10 0 SUPER JUNIOR 1.9% 51.62 13
11 0 STAY CHILL 1.5% 65.86 12
12 0 HERCULES 1.5% 67.09 9
13 0 UNIQUE TREASURE 1.4% 73.81 4
14 0 LUCKY PUZZLE 1.3% 79.81 10
GOOD BEAUTY — wonVICTORIAMALL IN MINDGRATEFUL HEARTSTAR LUCKSPECIAL STARSFEARLESS FIRERIGHT HONOURABLEBRAVE KINGSUPER JUNIORSTAY CHILLHERCULESUNIQUE TREASURELUCKY PUZZLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 36.5

PLACE

2 22.5

4 13

13 21.5

QUINELLA

4,13 163.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 50.5

2,13 95.5

4,13 47.5

TIERCE

4,13,2 1,891

TRIO

2,4,13 398

FIRST 4

2,4,13,14 6,159

QUARTET

4,13,2,14 70,159

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 19.5

A2 —

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

5/4 72.5

5/13 79.5