沙田 · 2020-03-29
第 4場
2020-03-29沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Wong策騎、K L Man訓練的CARE FREE PRINCE勝出，贏出3/4。CITY LEGEND獲得亞軍；DREAM WARRIORS獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.4倍大熱門INCANTO PREPARED跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CARE FREE PRINCE 一路領先 B 1.22.55 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Wong · K L Man | C Wong | K L Man | 11 | 8.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | CITY LEGEND 後段發力 B K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 1 | 4.7 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | DREAM WARRIORS 後段發力 CP/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 13 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 13 | IRON KING 後段發力 H G van Niekerk · C H Yip | G van Niekerk | C H Yip | 12 | 5.2 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | REGENCY MASTER TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 7 | 22.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | YES WE CAN 後段發力 CP2/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 10 | 40.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | RULE THEE B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | NATURAL STORM 後段發力 B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 3 | 60.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 5 | BETTER CHOICE 後段發力 CP- M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 8 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | SMART CHARADE 後段發力 B/H/TT N Callan · W Y So | N Callan | W Y So | 14 | 29.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | INCANTO PREPARED E/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 9 | 3.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS M L Yeung · D E Ferraris | M L Yeung | D E Ferraris | 5 | 386.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | WINNING TOGETHER B/TT V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 2 | 21.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 2 | SO GLORIOUS CP1/TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 517.0 | 9-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | INCANTO PREPARED | 29.4% | 3.41 | 11 |
| 2 | 4 | SMART CHARADE | 10.1% | 9.87 | 10 |
| 3 | 12 | CITY LEGEND | 8.5% | 11.83 | 2 |
| 4 | 13 | IRON KING | 7.9% | 12.73 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | DREAM WARRIORS | 7.1% | 14.02 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | WINNING TOGETHER | 7.0% | 14.30 | 13 |
| 7 | 5 | BETTER CHOICE | 6.9% | 14.41 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | REGENCY MASTER | 6.0% | 16.76 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | CARE FREE PRINCE | 5.2% | 19.35 | 1 |
| 10 | 11 | YES WE CAN | 4.0% | 24.87 | 6 |
| 11 | 3 | RULE THEE | 3.2% | 30.99 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | NATURAL STORM | 3.0% | 33.80 | 8 |
| 13 | 14 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS | 0.9% | 110.11 | 12 |
| 14 | 2 | SO GLORIOUS | 0.9% | 112.86 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 88
PLACE
1 42
10 24.5
12 16.5
QUINELLA
10,12 193.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 168
1,12 99
10,12 54
TIERCE
10,12,1 5,159
TRIO
1,10,12 818
FIRST 4
1,10,12,13 943
QUARTET
10,12,1,13 24,199
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
7>3,8,9/1,10,12 77,907
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 26
3RD DOUBLE
8,9/10 105.5
8,9/12 14.5