沙田 · 2020-03-29
第 6場
2020-03-29沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的JUNEAU PARK勝出，贏出1/2。TELECOM ROCKET獲得亞軍；WINWIN THIRTYTHREE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JUNEAU PARK 後段發力 1.22.84 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 2.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | TELECOM ROCKET 後段發力 CP G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 12 | 5.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 13 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 後段發力 B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 5 | 8.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | SPEED FAY FAY B1 V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 14 | 69.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | REGENCY GEM 早段領放 B/TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 6 | 38.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 14 | VICTORIOUS LEADER 後段發力 M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 7 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | EVER STRONG 後段發力 P C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 13 | 268.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | GREEN ENVY 後段發力 B-/TT1 N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 3 | 216.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | THE RUNNER B C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 10 | 21.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | DESTIN B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 11.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | MISTER MONTE 後段發力 B C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 8 | 210.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 9 | 42.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 2 | SAM'S LOVE TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 4 | 6.7 | 14-3/4 |
| 14 | 6 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE TT H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 11 | 514.0 | 17-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JUNEAU PARK | 34.0% | 2.94 | 1 |
| 2 | 13 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 12.2% | 8.22 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | SAM'S LOVE | 10.6% | 9.41 | 13 |
| 4 | 4 | TELECOM ROCKET | 10.1% | 9.92 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | REGENCY GEM | 7.1% | 14.15 | 5 |
| 6 | 14 | VICTORIOUS LEADER | 5.7% | 17.46 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | DESTIN | 5.4% | 18.68 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | THE RUNNER | 4.7% | 21.49 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | MISTER MONTE | 3.1% | 32.57 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | SPEED FAY FAY | 2.0% | 51.10 | 4 |
| 11 | 11 | EVER STRONG | 1.9% | 52.00 | 7 |
| 12 | 9 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 1.5% | 66.85 | 12 |
| 13 | 5 | GREEN ENVY | 1.4% | 71.38 | 8 |
| 14 | 6 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE | 0.5% | 207.75 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 20.5
PLACE
1 12
4 17
13 23
QUINELLA
1,4 68.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 31
1,13 42.5
4,13 62
TIERCE
1,4,13 611
TRIO
1,4,13 151
FIRST 4
1,4,7,13 2,050
QUARTET
1,4,13,7 16,489
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16.5
全部彩池（另 3 項）
5TH DOUBLE
2/1 135.5
2/4 85
TRIPLE TRIO
1,10,12/2,6,12/1,4,13 950,367
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,10,12/2,6,12/Any Combination 6,631