沙田 · 2020-03-29
第 8場
2020-03-29沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的PICKEN勝出，贏出SH。TOYCOON獲得亞軍；SUPERICH獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.6倍大熱門SUPERICH跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | PICKEN 後段發力 1.22.41 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 9 | 5.1 | SH |
| 2 | 4 | TOYCOON 後段發力 XB N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 3 | 5.7 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | SUPERICH 後段發力 SR/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 5 | 3.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | HARDLY SWEARS 後段發力 H M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 12 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | HORSESAIN BOLT 後段發力 CP-/B1/XB1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 8 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 13 | BEAUTY ICON B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 2 | 4.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 14 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 後段發力 TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 10 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | COBY BA H V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 14 | 416.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | HELLO BEAUTY B/TT K C Leung · J Moore | K C Leung | J Moore | 11 | 11.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SHANGHAI GRACE 後段發力 H- H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 13 | 585.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | SMART COUSIN 後段發力 T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 4 | 530.0 | 17 |
| 12 | 5 | YOUNG THUNDER CP H W Lai · T P Yung | H W Lai | T P Yung | 7 | 674.0 | 17-1/2 |
| 13 | 10 | STREET SCREAM M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 79.0 | 17-3/4 |
| 14 | 11 | ANONYMA 早段領放 TT C Wong · D E Ferraris | C Wong | D E Ferraris | 1 | 483.0 | 18 |
| — | 0 | PLANET STAR V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUPERICH | 24.5% | 4.08 | 3 |
| 2 | 12 | PICKEN | 19.3% | 5.19 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | TOYCOON | 10.0% | 10.02 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | HARDLY SWEARS | 9.9% | 10.10 | 4 |
| 5 | 13 | BEAUTY ICON | 9.8% | 10.18 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | HELLO BEAUTY | 8.2% | 12.25 | 9 |
| 7 | 14 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 7.3% | 13.68 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | HORSESAIN BOLT | 5.9% | 16.92 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | STREET SCREAM | 1.5% | 67.66 | 13 |
| 10 | 11 | ANONYMA | 1.1% | 93.79 | 14 |
| 11 | 9 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 0.8% | 127.02 | 10 |
| 12 | 7 | COBY BA | 0.8% | 129.24 | 8 |
| 13 | 8 | SMART COUSIN | 0.5% | 183.76 | 11 |
| 14 | 5 | YOUNG THUNDER | 0.5% | 196.44 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 51
PLACE
1 17
4 21.5
12 17
QUINELLA
4,12 171.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 55.5
1,12 38
4,12 68
TIERCE
12,4,1 1,671
TRIO
1,4,12 183
FIRST 4
1,4,6,12 537
QUARTET
12,4,1,6 15,616
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 22.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
7TH DOUBLE
13/4 26.5
13/12 198