跑馬地 · 2020-04-08
第 4場
2020-04-08跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、D J Whyte訓練的SIMPLY FLUKE勝出，贏出N。TRAVEL DATUK獲得亞軍；WOOD ON FIRE獲得季軍。頭馬以2.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SIMPLY FLUKE H/XB/P1 1.10.22 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 12 | 2.4 | N |
| 2 | 9 | TRAVEL DATUK B M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 4 | 21.0 | N |
| 3 | 8 | WOOD ON FIRE V-/H/B1 M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 3 | 4.7 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY V C Y Ho · J Size | C Y Ho | J Size | 5 | 8.2 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | MILLENNIUM FALCON H1/XB1 K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 7 | 50.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | AMAZING TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 8 | 9.3 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | MOMENTUM GALAXY H/P K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 2 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | GUNNAR TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 11 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | ONE STEP AHEAD TT T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 44.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | BULLISH BROTHER B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 6 | 27.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 4 | COMPASSION STAR C Wong · K L Man | C Wong | K L Man | 10 | 34.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | FIRE BALL TT1 C Schofield · C H Yip | C Schofield | C H Yip | 9 | 20.0 | 12 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WOOD ON FIRE | 17.3% | 5.79 | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 16.6% | 6.02 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | AMAZING | 13.1% | 7.64 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 11.4% | 8.80 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | GUNNAR | 9.1% | 10.97 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 7.0% | 14.20 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | COMPASSION STAR | 6.3% | 15.81 | 11 |
| 8 | 5 | MILLENNIUM FALCON | 6.1% | 16.40 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | TRAVEL DATUK | 5.3% | 18.83 | 2 |
| 10 | 7 | BULLISH BROTHER | 4.2% | 23.91 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | FIRE BALL | 1.9% | 51.78 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | ONE STEP AHEAD | 1.7% | 60.37 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 24.5
PLACE
8 15.5
9 45.5
10 14.5
QUINELLA
9,10 196.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,9 113.5
8,10 33.5
9,10 74.5
TIERCE
10,9,8 1,339
TRIO
8,9,10 317
FIRST 4
8,9,10,11 312
QUARTET
10,9,8,11 5,977
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,10,11/8,9,10 67,152
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
6/9 1,840.5
6/10 2,805.5