沙田 · 2020-05-17
第 4場
2020-05-17沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、D J Hall訓練的CLASSIC POSH勝出，贏出SH。HEZA BEAUTY獲得亞軍；WONDER EXPRESS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.0倍大熱門HEZA BEAUTY跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CLASSIC POSH 後段發力 1.21.87 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 6.7 | SH |
| 2 | 4 | HEZA BEAUTY 後段發力 V-/E J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 3.0 | SH |
| 3 | 14 | WONDER EXPRESS 後段發力 CP/TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 1 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 9 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | STUNNING IMPACT 後段發力 B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | SPEED FAY FAY 早段領放 B V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 8 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | KING DRAGON 後段發力 V/XB1 C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 11 | 21.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | HAPPY REUNION B1 N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 5 | 34.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 13 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 4 | 14.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | SUPER WINNER TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 10 | 24.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | BETTER CHOICE 後段發力 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 14 | 15.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY B-/CP2 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 13 | 80.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 5 | ALL WONGCHOY V/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 3 | 80.0 | 14 |
| 14 | 3 | WELL DRAGON TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 7 | 409.0 | 15-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HEZA BEAUTY | 19.2% | 5.20 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | CLASSIC POSH | 15.9% | 6.31 | 1 |
| 3 | 14 | WONDER EXPRESS | 13.0% | 7.67 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPER WINNER | 11.0% | 9.09 | 10 |
| 5 | 10 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 7.6% | 13.22 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | STUNNING IMPACT | 6.5% | 15.32 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | BETTER CHOICE | 5.6% | 17.88 | 11 |
| 8 | 1 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY | 5.0% | 20.19 | 12 |
| 9 | 13 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 4.0% | 25.02 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | ALL WONGCHOY | 4.0% | 25.03 | 13 |
| 11 | 12 | SPEED FAY FAY | 3.8% | 26.33 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | KING DRAGON | 3.1% | 31.85 | 7 |
| 13 | 6 | HAPPY REUNION | 0.7% | 134.68 | 8 |
| 14 | 3 | WELL DRAGON | 0.6% | 179.51 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 67.5
PLACE
2 21.5
4 15.5
14 33.5
QUINELLA
2,4 130
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 52
2,14 123
4,14 83
TIERCE
2,4,14 2,632
TRIO
2,4,14 411
FIRST 4
2,4,10,14 906
QUARTET
2,4,14,10 22,408
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,8,11/2,4,14 33,148
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 35
3RD DOUBLE
6/2 295
6/4 11.5