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Sha Tin · 2020-05-17

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-17 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CLASSIC POSH, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with HEZA BEAUTY second and WONDER EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite HEZA BEAUTY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CLASSIC POSH Closed strongly 1.21.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 2 6.7 SH
2 4 HEZA BEAUTY Closed strongly V-/E J Moreira · J Size 6 3.0 SH
3 14 WONDER EXPRESS Closed strongly CP/TT C Schofield · K H Ting 1 11.0 1/2
4 10 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B A Hamelin · F C Lor 9 15.0 1
5 9 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 12 4.5 1-1/4
6 12 SPEED FAY FAY Led early B V Borges · T P Yung 8 11.0 1-3/4
7 7 KING DRAGON Closed strongly V/XB1 C Y Ho · K L Man 11 21.0 2-3/4
8 6 HAPPY REUNION B1 N Callan · P F Yiu 5 34.0 3
9 13 CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 4 14.0 3
10 11 SUPER WINNER TT T H So · C H Yip 10 24.0 7-1/4
11 8 BETTER CHOICE Closed strongly C L Chau · D J Whyte 14 15.0 8-1/4
12 1 LET'S TAKE IT EASY B-/CP2 H T Mo · L Ho 13 80.0 8-3/4
13 5 ALL WONGCHOY V/TT K H Chan · C S Shum 3 80.0 14
14 3 WELL DRAGON TT H W Lai · W Y So 7 409.0 15-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CLASSIC POSH2. HEZA BEAUTY+0.1L3. WONDER EXPRESS+0.5L4. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+1L5. STUNNING IMPACT+1.25L6. SPEED FAY FAY+1.75L7. KING DRAGON+2.75L8. HAPPY REUNION+3L9. CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE+3L10. SUPER WINNER+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HEZA BEAUTY (19.2%) finished 2nd — the winner CLASSIC POSH was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 HEZA BEAUTY 19.2% 5.20 2
2 2 CLASSIC POSH 15.9% 6.31 1
3 14 WONDER EXPRESS 13.0% 7.67 3
4 11 SUPER WINNER 11.0% 9.09 10
5 10 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 7.6% 13.22 4
6 9 STUNNING IMPACT 6.5% 15.32 5
7 8 BETTER CHOICE 5.6% 17.88 11
8 1 LET'S TAKE IT EASY 5.0% 20.19 12
9 13 CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE 4.0% 25.02 9
10 5 ALL WONGCHOY 4.0% 25.03 13
11 12 SPEED FAY FAY 3.8% 26.33 6
12 7 KING DRAGON 3.1% 31.85 7
13 6 HAPPY REUNION 0.7% 134.68 8
14 3 WELL DRAGON 0.6% 179.51 14
HEZA BEAUTYCLASSIC POSH — wonWONDER EXPRESSSUPER WINNERALL FOR ST PAUL'SSTUNNING IMPACTBETTER CHOICELET'S TAKE IT EASYCIRCUIT NUMBER ONEALL WONGCHOYSPEED FAY FAYKING DRAGONHAPPY REUNIONWELL DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 67.5

PLACE

2 21.5

4 15.5

14 33.5

QUINELLA

2,4 130

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 52

2,14 123

4,14 83

TIERCE

2,4,14 2,632

TRIO

2,4,14 411

FIRST 4

2,4,10,14 906

QUARTET

2,4,14,10 22,408

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,8,11/2,4,14 33,148

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 35

3RD DOUBLE

6/2 295

6/4 11.5