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Sha Tin · 2020-05-17

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 0.55.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOOD VIEW CLARICO XB 0.55.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T H So · C H Yip 7 7.4 N
2 0 WAR OF COURAGE C Schofield · K L Man 14 1.9 N
3 0 CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 20.0 1-1/2
4 0 CUE THE MUSIC SR/TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris 9 22.0 2-1/4
5 0 KURPANY TT V Borges · J Moore 5 20.0 3
6 0 ZERO HEDGE PC/XB M Chadwick · J Size 13 27.0 3-1/4
7 0 DIAMOND BRILLIANT CP/TT J Moreira · T P Yung 3 11.0 4
8 0 BALTIC WHISPER TT N Callan · C S Shum 10 13.0 4-1/4
9 0 WHISKEY NEAT TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 6 40.0 4-3/4
10 0 POISED TO STRIKE C L Chau · W Y So 4 50.0 5-1/4
11 0 SWIFT SPIRIT B1/TT1 C Y Ho · K H Ting 8 67.0 7-1/4
12 0 ALCARI B2 A Hamelin · P F Yiu 11 7.2 9
13 0 WON BALL M F Poon · D J Hall 12 320.0 11-1/2
14 0 SMART FOLKS B1 Z Purton · C W Chang 2 43.0 18

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-17 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOOD VIEW CLARICO, ridden by T H So and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with WAR OF COURAGE second and CALIFORNIA ARCHER third. The 1.9 favourite WAR OF COURAGE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD VIEW CLARICO—2. WAR OF COURAGE+0.05L3. CALIFORNIA ARCHER+1.5L4. CUE THE MUSIC+2.25L5. KURPANY+3L6. ZERO HEDGE+3.25L7. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+4L8. BALTIC WHISPER+4.25L9. WHISKEY NEAT+4.75L10. POISED TO STRIKE+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WAR OF COURAGE (33.8%) finished 2nd — the winner GOOD VIEW CLARICO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 WAR OF COURAGE 33.8% 2.96 2
2 0 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 28.3% 3.53 7
3 0 GOOD VIEW CLARICO 7.1% 14.02 1
4 0 SMART FOLKS 5.2% 19.08 14
5 0 CALIFORNIA ARCHER 3.9% 25.93 3
6 0 POISED TO STRIKE 3.5% 28.23 10
7 0 SWIFT SPIRIT 3.4% 29.74 11
8 0 WHISKEY NEAT 3.1% 31.81 9
9 0 ALCARI 2.9% 34.80 12
10 0 BALTIC WHISPER 2.8% 35.67 8
11 0 KURPANY 2.3% 43.00 5
12 0 ZERO HEDGE 1.9% 53.43 6
13 0 CUE THE MUSIC 1.2% 84.97 4
14 0 WON BALL 0.5% 207.48 13
WAR OF COURAGEDIAMOND BRILLIANTGOOD VIEW CLARICO — wonSMART FOLKSCALIFORNIA ARCHERPOISED TO STRIKESWIFT SPIRITWHISKEY NEATALCARIBALTIC WHISPERKURPANYZERO HEDGECUE THE MUSICWON BALL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 74.5

PLACE

6 12

8 49.5

11 19.5

QUINELLA

6,11 70.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 78

6,11 30.5

8,11 183

TIERCE

11,6,8 2,043

TRIO

6,8,11 351

FIRST 4

2,6,8,11 950

QUARTET

11,6,8,2 18,585

3 PICK 1

A1 15.5

A2 —

A3 —

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

3/6 68

3/11 1,044

TRIPLE TRIO

2,4,14/3,6,10/6,8,11 1,003,725

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,4,14/3,6,10/Any Combination 3,669