沙田 · 2020-05-17
第 6場
2020-05-17沙田第6場，Class 3，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由T H So策騎、C H Yip訓練的GOOD VIEW CLARICO勝出，贏出N。WAR OF COURAGE獲得亞軍；CALIFORNIA ARCHER獲得季軍。1.9倍大熱門WAR OF COURAGE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO XB 0.55.24 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 7 | 7.4 | N |
| 2 | 6 | WAR OF COURAGE C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 14 | 1.9 | N |
| 3 | 8 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 20.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | CUE THE MUSIC SR/TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 9 | 22.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 13 | KURPANY TT V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 5 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | ZERO HEDGE PC/XB M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 13 | 27.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT CP/TT J Moreira · T P Yung | J Moreira | T P Yung | 3 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | BALTIC WHISPER TT N Callan · C S Shum | N Callan | C S Shum | 10 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 14 | WHISKEY NEAT TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 6 | 40.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | POISED TO STRIKE C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 4 | 50.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SWIFT SPIRIT B1/TT1 C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 8 | 67.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | ALCARI B2 A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 11 | 7.2 | 9 |
| 13 | 5 | WON BALL M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 320.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 14 | 1 | SMART FOLKS B1 Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 2 | 43.0 | 18 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | WAR OF COURAGE | 33.8% | 2.96 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT | 28.3% | 3.53 | 7 |
| 3 | 11 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 7.1% | 14.02 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | SMART FOLKS | 5.2% | 19.08 | 14 |
| 5 | 8 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER | 3.9% | 25.93 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | POISED TO STRIKE | 3.5% | 28.23 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | SWIFT SPIRIT | 3.4% | 29.74 | 11 |
| 8 | 14 | WHISKEY NEAT | 3.1% | 31.81 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | ALCARI | 2.9% | 34.80 | 12 |
| 10 | 7 | BALTIC WHISPER | 2.8% | 35.67 | 8 |
| 11 | 13 | KURPANY | 2.3% | 43.00 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | ZERO HEDGE | 1.9% | 53.43 | 6 |
| 13 | 2 | CUE THE MUSIC | 1.2% | 84.97 | 4 |
| 14 | 5 | WON BALL | 0.5% | 207.48 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 74.5
PLACE
6 12
8 49.5
11 19.5
QUINELLA
6,11 70.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 78
6,11 30.5
8,11 183
TIERCE
11,6,8 2,043
TRIO
6,8,11 351
FIRST 4
2,6,8,11 950
QUARTET
11,6,8,2 18,585
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 15.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 3 項）
5TH DOUBLE
3/6 68
3/11 1,044
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,14/3,6,10/6,8,11 1,003,725
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,14/3,6,10/Any Combination 3,669