沙田 · 2020-05-17
第 5場
2020-05-17沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CASA DE FORCA勝出，贏出1。CHEVALIER PRINCE獲得亞軍；CASIMIRO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.6倍大熱門CHEVALIER PRINCE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CASA DE FORCA 後段發力 B 1.21.54 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 8.9 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | CHEVALIER PRINCE 後段發力 H Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 2.6 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | CASIMIRO 後段發力 N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 5.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | MIGHTY POWER C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 22.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | SPRINT FORWARD 早段領放 CP/XB/TT J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 11 | 5.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | HANG'S DECISION 後段發力 B/H K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 8 | 38.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | WINSTON'S LAD 後段發力 B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 13 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | BIG BANG BONG TT C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 7 | 46.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | BEST FOR YOU B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 9 | 15.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | RIGHTEOUS WIN B1 V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 1 | 87.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | TRIUMPHANT HORSE B/TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 5 | 11.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | LUCKY MISSILE 後段發力 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 41.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | WINNING CONTROLLER B T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 2 | 21.0 | 10 |
| 14 | 12 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE TT M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 14 | 562.0 | 14 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHEVALIER PRINCE | 19.1% | 5.22 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | BEST FOR YOU | 15.2% | 6.57 | 9 |
| 3 | 7 | MIGHTY POWER | 11.9% | 8.39 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | SPRINT FORWARD | 10.9% | 9.21 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | CASIMIRO | 9.0% | 11.13 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | TRIUMPHANT HORSE | 7.9% | 12.67 | 11 |
| 7 | 3 | CASA DE FORCA | 7.6% | 13.18 | 1 |
| 8 | 11 | WINSTON'S LAD | 4.2% | 23.53 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | BIG BANG BONG | 4.2% | 23.81 | 8 |
| 10 | 13 | LUCKY MISSILE | 3.3% | 29.98 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | RIGHTEOUS WIN | 3.3% | 30.11 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | WINNING CONTROLLER | 2.0% | 50.51 | 13 |
| 13 | 5 | HANG'S DECISION | 0.7% | 140.76 | 6 |
| 14 | 12 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE | 0.6% | 164.40 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 89.5
PLACE
3 24
6 14.5
10 18.5
QUINELLA
3,6 156
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 65.5
3,10 94.5
6,10 34.5
TIERCE
3,6,10 2,183
TRIO
3,6,10 266
FIRST 4
3,6,7,10 1,968
QUARTET
3,6,10,7 51,314
3 PICK 1
A2 41
A1 —
A3 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
2/3 1,118
2/6 56.5