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Sha Tin · 2020-05-17

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 2200m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-17 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SKY GEM, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with ENJOYABLE SUCCESS second and KING PRINT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.16.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SKY GEM Closed strongly V-/TT- 2.16.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 8 4.5 3/4
2 4 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B- A Hamelin · C W Chang 5 11.0 3/4
3 2 KING PRINT Closed strongly Z Purton · C H Yip 9 6.0 2
4 13 YOUNG GLORY B K Teetan · D E Ferraris 7 8.7 2-1/4
5 8 MASTER ROMAN Closed strongly E N Callan · W Y So 3 17.0 2-1/4
6 14 GREAT SMART B-/CP2/TT1 M Chadwick · K L Man 14 33.0 2-3/4
7 1 AMAZING AGILITY SR/TT M F Poon · L Ho 1 11.0 3-3/4
8 5 ASSOCIATION FANS Led early H/SR H W Lai · L Ho 13 89.0 4-3/4
9 12 STRAPPING BAUHINIA Closed strongly B-/CP1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 12 198.0 4-3/4
10 3 MERIDIAN TALENT P C Schofield · R Gibson 4 34.0 6
11 7 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B C L Chau · C W Chang 11 6.7 7
12 9 AEROFLASH B-/CP2 V Borges · J Moore 2 6.6 7-3/4
13 6 GOLDEN KID B K C Leung · K W Lui 6 28.0 8
14 11 REEVE'S MUNTJAC B-/XB/V1/TT C Y Ho · C H Yip 10 15.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY GEM2. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS+0.75L3. KING PRINT+2L4. YOUNG GLORY+2.25L5. MASTER ROMAN+2.25L6. GREAT SMART+2.75L7. AMAZING AGILITY+3.75L8. ASSOCIATION FANS+4.75L9. STRAPPING BAUHINIA+4.75L10. MERIDIAN TALENT+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SKY GEM (24.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SKY GEM 24.7% 4.04 1
2 2 KING PRINT 20.8% 4.80 3
3 1 AMAZING AGILITY 11.4% 8.78 7
4 9 AEROFLASH 7.8% 12.85 12
5 4 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 7.2% 13.94 2
6 13 YOUNG GLORY 6.8% 14.72 4
7 7 THE JOY OF GIVING 5.1% 19.46 11
8 8 MASTER ROMAN 4.9% 20.54 5
9 5 ASSOCIATION FANS 3.2% 30.85 8
10 11 REEVE'S MUNTJAC 2.1% 48.56 14
11 6 GOLDEN KID 1.8% 55.98 13
12 14 GREAT SMART 1.7% 58.04 6
13 3 MERIDIAN TALENT 1.3% 74.49 10
14 12 STRAPPING BAUHINIA 1.1% 88.29 9
SKY GEM — wonKING PRINTAMAZING AGILITYAEROFLASHENJOYABLE SUCCESSYOUNG GLORYTHE JOY OF GIVINGMASTER ROMANASSOCIATION FANSREEVE'S MUNTJACGOLDEN KIDGREAT SMARTMERIDIAN TALENTSTRAPPING BAUHINIA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 45

PLACE

2 24

4 32.5

10 17

QUINELLA

4,10 318

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 110.5

2,10 65

4,10 109

TIERCE

10,4,2 2,715

TRIO

2,4,10 395

FIRST 4

2,4,10,13 396

QUARTET

10,4,2,13 9,737

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 21.5