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Sha Tin · 2020-05-17

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-17 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GIFT OF LIFELINE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by A T Millard, won by SH, with MR ALDAN second and CHEERFUL LEADER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite CHEERFUL LEADER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly CP-/B2 1.34.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · A T Millard 1 7.5 SH
2 2 MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 25.0 SH
3 8 CHEERFUL LEADER Closed strongly B/XB J Moreira · P F Yiu 6 2.3 1/2
4 3 XIANG YIN Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · F C Lor 4 13.0 1-1/4
5 4 ALPHA HEDGE CP N Callan · K W Lui 5 12.0 1-3/4
6 7 EVER LAUGH B/TT Z Purton · K L Man 9 5.5 3-1/2
7 10 TUNG WAH GLORY P K Teetan · T P Yung 7 6.2 4
8 9 REYNOLDS XB-/SR C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 19.0 6-3/4
9 5 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE H1/P1 M F Poon · K H Ting 2 154.0 6-3/4
10 1 AWE Led early B/TT- C Y Ho · J Moore 10 17.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GIFT OF LIFELINE2. MR ALDAN+0.1L3. CHEERFUL LEADER+0.5L4. XIANG YIN+1.25L5. ALPHA HEDGE+1.75L6. EVER LAUGH+3.5L7. TUNG WAH GLORY+4L8. REYNOLDS+6.75L9. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+6.75L10. AWE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CHEERFUL LEADER (42.4%) finished 3rd — the winner GIFT OF LIFELINE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 CHEERFUL LEADER 42.4% 2.36 3
2 10 TUNG WAH GLORY 17.7% 5.64 7
3 6 GIFT OF LIFELINE 15.8% 6.32 1
4 4 ALPHA HEDGE 4.9% 20.36 5
5 7 EVER LAUGH 4.4% 22.73 6
6 2 MR ALDAN 3.4% 29.73 2
7 5 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 3.1% 31.80 9
8 3 XIANG YIN 2.8% 35.11 4
9 9 REYNOLDS 2.7% 37.08 8
10 1 AWE 2.6% 37.88 10
CHEERFUL LEADERTUNG WAH GLORYGIFT OF LIFELINE — wonALPHA HEDGEEVER LAUGHMR ALDANWEALTHY EMPLOYEEXIANG YINREYNOLDSAWE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 75.5

PLACE

2 62.5

6 20.5

8 12.5

QUINELLA

2,6 1,224

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 284

2,8 131

6,8 33.5

TIERCE

6,2,8 5,303

TRIO

2,6,8 497

FIRST 4

2,3,6,8 1,542

QUARTET

6,2,8,3 41,668

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,8,11/2,6,8 14,023

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 27

A1

6TH DOUBLE

11/2 330

11/6 378.5