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Sha Tin · 2020-05-17

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C+3 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly CP-/B2 1.34.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · A T Millard 1 7.5 SH
2 0 MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 25.0 SH
3 0 CHEERFUL LEADER Closed strongly B/XB J Moreira · P F Yiu 6 2.3 1/2
4 0 XIANG YIN Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · F C Lor 4 13.0 1-1/4
5 0 ALPHA HEDGE CP N Callan · K W Lui 5 12.0 1-3/4
6 0 EVER LAUGH B/TT Z Purton · K L Man 9 5.5 3-1/2
7 0 TUNG WAH GLORY P K Teetan · T P Yung 7 6.2 4
8 0 REYNOLDS XB-/SR C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 19.0 6-3/4
9 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE H1/P1 M F Poon · K H Ting 2 154.0 6-3/4
10 0 AWE Led early B/TT- C Y Ho · J Moore 10 17.0 7-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-17 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GIFT OF LIFELINE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by A T Millard, won by SH, with MR ALDAN second and CHEERFUL LEADER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite CHEERFUL LEADER finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GIFT OF LIFELINE—2. MR ALDAN+0.1L3. CHEERFUL LEADER+0.5L4. XIANG YIN+1.25L5. ALPHA HEDGE+1.75L6. EVER LAUGH+3.5L7. TUNG WAH GLORY+4L8. REYNOLDS+6.75L9. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+6.75L10. AWE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CHEERFUL LEADER (42.4%) finished 3rd — the winner GIFT OF LIFELINE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CHEERFUL LEADER 42.4% 2.36 3
2 0 TUNG WAH GLORY 17.7% 5.64 7
3 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE 15.8% 6.32 1
4 0 ALPHA HEDGE 4.9% 20.36 5
5 0 EVER LAUGH 4.4% 22.73 6
6 0 MR ALDAN 3.4% 29.73 2
7 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 3.1% 31.80 9
8 0 XIANG YIN 2.8% 35.11 4
9 0 REYNOLDS 2.7% 37.08 8
10 0 AWE 2.6% 37.88 10
CHEERFUL LEADERTUNG WAH GLORYGIFT OF LIFELINE — wonALPHA HEDGEEVER LAUGHMR ALDANWEALTHY EMPLOYEEXIANG YINREYNOLDSAWE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 75.5

PLACE

2 62.5

6 20.5

8 12.5

QUINELLA

2,6 1,224

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 284

2,8 131

6,8 33.5

TIERCE

6,2,8 5,303

TRIO

2,6,8 497

FIRST 4

2,3,6,8 1,542

QUARTET

6,2,8,3 41,668

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,8,11/2,6,8 14,023

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 27

6TH DOUBLE

11/2 330

11/6 378.5