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Sha Tin · 2020-05-17

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C+3 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.47.49
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB 1.47.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang 8 7.7 N
2 0 SUPER OASIS Closed strongly XB/B1 Z Purton · P F Yiu 1 2.4 N
3 0 HELENA BABY Closed strongly B- M L Yeung · J Moore 11 144.0 N
4 0 BUTTERFIELD XB-/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 5 4.7 1
5 0 THINKIN' BIG Led early XB/B1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 20.0 3
6 0 UNCLE STEVE Closed strongly SR/XB C Schofield · D J Whyte 4 9.0 3-1/4
7 0 ARROGANT Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 87.0 3-1/2
8 0 PRIVATE SECRETARY H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 10 31.0 4
9 0 AMAZING BEATS B-/CP1 K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 6 15.0 4
10 0 ENRICHMENT B A Hamelin · J Size 2 5.5 9
11 0 RICKFIELD XB C Wong · A T Millard 9 94.0 11

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-17 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with SUPER OASIS second and HELENA BABY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite SUPER OASIS finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE—2. SUPER OASIS+0.05L3. HELENA BABY+0.05L4. BUTTERFIELD+1L5. THINKIN' BIG+3L6. UNCLE STEVE+3.25L7. ARROGANT+3.5L8. PRIVATE SECRETARY+4L9. AMAZING BEATS+4L10. ENRICHMENT+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BUTTERFIELD (22.8%) finished 4th — the winner RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BUTTERFIELD 22.8% 4.38 4
2 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 20.3% 4.93 1
3 0 ENRICHMENT 19.3% 5.17 10
4 0 SUPER OASIS 18.2% 5.49 2
5 0 AMAZING BEATS 6.3% 15.84 9
6 0 UNCLE STEVE 5.9% 16.95 6
7 0 THINKIN' BIG 2.3% 44.00 5
8 0 PRIVATE SECRETARY 1.8% 54.96 8
9 0 RICKFIELD 1.3% 76.37 11
10 0 ARROGANT 1.1% 94.19 7
11 0 HELENA BABY 0.7% 151.41 3
BUTTERFIELDRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE — wonENRICHMENTSUPER OASISAMAZING BEATSUNCLE STEVETHINKIN' BIGPRIVATE SECRETARYRICKFIELDARROGANTHELENA BABY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 77.5

PLACE

2 13.5

9 265

11 20.5

QUINELLA

2,11 84

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 577.5

2,11 36

9,11 1,442.5

TIERCE

11,2,9 20,574

TRIO

2,9,11 3,712

FIRST 4

1,2,9,11 2,617

QUARTET

11,2,9,1 59,492

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 19.5

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

6/2 31.5

6/11 725