沙田 · 2020-05-24
第 5場
2020-05-24沙田第5場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、P F Yiu訓練的GOOD LUCK FRIEND勝出，贏出2-1/4。BIZ POWER獲得亞軍；CRUISING獲得季軍。頭馬以1.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP 1.08.75 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 4 | 1.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | BIZ POWER B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 5.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | CRUISING C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 8.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 10 | 121.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | MOERAKI H-/CP1 C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 1 | 103.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | CALIFORNIA LEVEE B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 11 | 49.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | WIND N GRASS TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 2 | 6.2 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | BIG BROOK C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 8 | 18.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | HAFEET ALAIN B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 5 | 87.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | HAPPY TIME TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 12 | 23.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 11 | SHANGHAI GRACE H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 518.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | ROMANTIC COMBO B1/TT1 K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 7 | 162.0 | 12-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | WIND N GRASS | 10.9% | 9.18 | 7 |
| 3 | 6 | BIZ POWER | 7.0% | 14.20 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | CRUISING | 5.8% | 17.11 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | HAPPY TIME | 5.0% | 19.81 | 10 |
| 6 | 8 | CALIFORNIA LEVEE | 4.2% | 23.90 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | BIG BROOK | 3.2% | 31.22 | 8 |
| 8 | 9 | ROMANTIC COMBO | 1.2% | 80.24 | 12 |
| 9 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM | 1.0% | 99.62 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | MOERAKI | 1.0% | 104.18 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 | HAFEET ALAIN | 0.9% | 106.88 | 9 |
| 12 | 11 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 0.4% | 243.43 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 16.5
PLACE
1 18.5
6 16.5
10 11
QUINELLA
6,10 48
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 63.5
1,10 22.5
6,10 24
TIERCE
10,6,1 258
TRIO
1,6,10 90
FIRST 4
1,6,7,10 1,038
QUARTET
10,6,1,7 7,667
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,4/1,6,10 1,314
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 13
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
2/6 31
2/10 40