沙田 · 2020-09-20
第 10場
2020-09-20沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的EXCELLENT PROPOSAL勝出，贏出1-1/2。SAVVY NINE獲得亞軍；INSAYSHABLE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.2倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 後段發力 E 1.33.64 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 14 | 3.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | SAVVY NINE 後段發力 XB1/TT- C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 10 | 8.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | INSAYSHABLE 後段發力 N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 3 | 21.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 14 | FLYING QUEST B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 88.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 XB C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 5 | 46.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | LAKESHORE EAGLE 後段發力 K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 12 | 4.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 13 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR 後段發力 CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 8 | 49.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | SUPER OASIS B/XB B Shinn · P F Yiu | B Shinn | P F Yiu | 4 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | EASY GO EASY WIN V/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 9 | 65.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | RIGHT CHOICE B V Borges · F C Lor | V Borges | F C Lor | 2 | 36.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | ASSIMILATE B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 7 | 6.7 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | AMAZING ONE PLUS H/XB/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 6 | 5.1 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR 早段領放 B-/H1/TT C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 11 | 291.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 14 | 8 | ARROGANT TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 13 | 176.0 | 9 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 36.0% | 2.78 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | AMAZING ONE PLUS | 12.8% | 7.82 | 12 |
| 3 | 4 | LAKESHORE EAGLE | 11.6% | 8.62 | 6 |
| 4 | 13 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 6.1% | 16.32 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | ASSIMILATE | 6.0% | 16.63 | 11 |
| 6 | 2 | SAVVY NINE | 5.1% | 19.56 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 4.4% | 22.57 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | RIGHT CHOICE | 4.1% | 24.46 | 10 |
| 9 | 1 | SUPER OASIS | 4.0% | 25.22 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | EASY GO EASY WIN | 3.1% | 32.23 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | INSAYSHABLE | 2.5% | 40.38 | 3 |
| 12 | 14 | FLYING QUEST | 1.9% | 53.06 | 4 |
| 13 | 7 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR | 1.4% | 73.43 | 13 |
| 14 | 8 | ARROGANT | 1.1% | 95.04 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 32
PLACE
2 26
3 49
10 17.5
QUINELLA
2,10 160.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 207.5
2,10 64.5
3,10 109.5
FORECAST
10,2 211
TIERCE
10,2,3 2,800
TRIO
2,3,10 885
FIRST 4
2,3,10,14 9,840
QUARTET
10,2,3,14 74,342
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 23.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,9/2,3,10 9,481
9TH DOUBLE
4/2 17
4/10 53
SIX UP
8/2/4/5/4/10 8,422
8,13/1,2/2,4/5,10/2,4/2,10 1,314
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
5/4/2 65
5/4/10 122