沙田 · 2020-09-20
第 5場
2020-09-20沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由N Callan策騎、P F Yiu訓練的EXCELLENT CHARIOT勝出，贏出1-1/4。DIAMOND PEGASUS獲得亞軍；BELUGA獲得季軍。2.6倍大熱門BELUGA跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT TT 1.08.67 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 5 | 9.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 13 | DIAMOND PEGASUS B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 2 | 8.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | BELUGA H1 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 13 | 2.6 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | NOBLE DESIRE B-/XB/CP1 V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 3 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | FORTUNE MASTER C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 4.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | SHANGHAI GRACE H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 330.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | MONKEY JEWELLERY J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 7.9 | 5 |
| 8 | 14 | FOR FUN'S SAKE H A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 4 | 81.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | TIGER GLARE H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 11 | 293.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | WINNING STEED K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 7 | 7.4 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | LUCKY RUBY C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 9 | 56.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | PRETTY CUTE TT1 K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 12 | 210.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 4 | SURE WIN WIN CP-/B1 A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 8 | 35.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | PLANET FLYER B C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 14 | 260.0 | 13 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BELUGA | 33.8% | 2.96 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | WINNING STEED | 13.3% | 7.52 | 10 |
| 3 | 1 | MONKEY JEWELLERY | 11.3% | 8.87 | 7 |
| 4 | 6 | FORTUNE MASTER | 8.3% | 12.10 | 5 |
| 5 | 13 | DIAMOND PEGASUS | 7.6% | 13.13 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | SURE WIN WIN | 5.9% | 16.95 | 13 |
| 7 | 12 | NOBLE DESIRE | 5.6% | 17.91 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT | 5.0% | 19.84 | 1 |
| 9 | 3 | PRETTY CUTE | 3.2% | 31.55 | 12 |
| 10 | 14 | FOR FUN'S SAKE | 2.0% | 49.09 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | LUCKY RUBY | 1.9% | 51.71 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 0.8% | 119.59 | 6 |
| 13 | 11 | TIGER GLARE | 0.8% | 132.89 | 9 |
| 14 | 10 | PLANET FLYER | 0.5% | 197.47 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 97
PLACE
2 14.5
8 32
13 23
QUINELLA
8,13 423
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 53.5
2,13 42
8,13 121.5
FORECAST
8,13 1,008
TIERCE
8,13,2 3,714
TRIO
2,8,13 298
FIRST 4
2,8,12,13 816
QUARTET
8,13,2,12 27,227
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 27.5
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
5/8 4,414
5/13 830