沙田 · 2020-09-27
第 6場
2020-09-27沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由C L Chau策騎、R Gibson訓練的BLOTTING PAPER勝出，贏出4-3/4。FORTUNE HAPPINESS獲得亞軍；STAR SUPERIOR獲得季軍。3.2倍大熱門PEARL CHAMPION跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BLOTTING PAPER B 1.10.01 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 7 | 4.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS B J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 9 | 6.3 | 4-3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | STAR SUPERIOR C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 12 | 20.0 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | DOLLAR REWARD P/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 3 | 46.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | WAR LORD P A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 8 | 25.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | DEMONS ROCK B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 20.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | NOBLE BIRTH H- A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 6 | 18.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | GREAT SON V/TT C Wong · P O'Sullivan | C Wong | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 65.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | HANDSOME REBEL B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 4 | 4.6 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | VIVA COUNCIL V K H Chan · L Ho | K H Chan | L Ho | 5 | 27.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | PEARL CHAMPION B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 2 | 3.2 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | STARLIGHT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 10 | 44.0 | 24 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | PEARL CHAMPION | 24.7% | 4.06 | 11 |
| 2 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS | 15.8% | 6.32 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | HANDSOME REBEL | 14.5% | 6.90 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | BLOTTING PAPER | 7.0% | 14.34 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | NOBLE BIRTH | 6.7% | 14.86 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | GREAT SON | 6.3% | 15.77 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | DEMONS ROCK | 5.6% | 17.86 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | STAR SUPERIOR | 5.3% | 18.91 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | WAR LORD | 5.1% | 19.72 | 5 |
| 10 | 5 | DOLLAR REWARD | 4.3% | 23.08 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | VIVA COUNCIL | 3.2% | 31.16 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | STARLIGHT | 1.5% | 67.24 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 41.5
PLACE
2 18.5
4 16.5
8 40.5
QUINELLA
2,4 155.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 54
2,8 106
4,8 101.5
FORECAST
4,2 249
TIERCE
4,2,8 2,030
TRIO
2,4,8 465
FIRST 4
2,4,5,8 2,879
QUARTET
4,2,8,5 39,879
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 19.5
A1 —
5TH DOUBLE
7/2 117.5
7/4 485.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,7/7,12,13/2,4,8 4,350,375
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,7/7,12,13/Any Combination 5,606