Sha Tin · 2020-09-27
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BLOTTING PAPER, ridden by C L Chau and trained by R Gibson, won by 4-3/4, with FORTUNE HAPPINESS second and STAR SUPERIOR third. The 3.2 favourite PEARL CHAMPION finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BLOTTING PAPER B 1.10.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 7 | 4.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS B J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 9 | 6.3 | 4-3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | STAR SUPERIOR C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 12 | 20.0 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | DOLLAR REWARD P/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 3 | 46.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | WAR LORD P A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 8 | 25.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | DEMONS ROCK B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 20.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | NOBLE BIRTH H- A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 6 | 18.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | GREAT SON V/TT C Wong · P O'Sullivan | C Wong | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 65.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | HANDSOME REBEL B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 4 | 4.6 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | VIVA COUNCIL V K H Chan · L Ho | K H Chan | L Ho | 5 | 27.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | PEARL CHAMPION B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 2 | 3.2 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | STARLIGHT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 10 | 44.0 | 24 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | PEARL CHAMPION | 24.7% | 4.06 | 11 |
| 2 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS | 15.8% | 6.32 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | HANDSOME REBEL | 14.5% | 6.90 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | BLOTTING PAPER | 7.0% | 14.34 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | NOBLE BIRTH | 6.7% | 14.86 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | GREAT SON | 6.3% | 15.77 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | DEMONS ROCK | 5.6% | 17.86 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | STAR SUPERIOR | 5.3% | 18.91 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | WAR LORD | 5.1% | 19.72 | 5 |
| 10 | 5 | DOLLAR REWARD | 4.3% | 23.08 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | VIVA COUNCIL | 3.2% | 31.16 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | STARLIGHT | 1.5% | 67.24 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 41.5
PLACE
2 18.5
4 16.5
8 40.5
QUINELLA
2,4 155.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 54
2,8 106
4,8 101.5
FORECAST
4,2 249
TIERCE
4,2,8 2,030
TRIO
2,4,8 465
FIRST 4
2,4,5,8 2,879
QUARTET
4,2,8,5 39,879
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 19.5
A1 —
5TH DOUBLE
7/2 117.5
7/4 485.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,7/7,12,13/2,4,8 4,350,375
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,7/7,12,13/Any Combination 5,606