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Sha Tin · 2020-09-27

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GALACTIC, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by A T Millard, won by SH, with SUPER RED DRAGON second and BREEZE OF SPRING third. The 5.5 favourite SUPER RED DRAGON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 GALACTIC CP-/XB- 1.09.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · A T Millard 4 9.7 SH
2 13 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT A Badel · W Y So 11 5.5 SH
3 12 BREEZE OF SPRING CP/TT K C Leung · L Ho 7 9.8 1/2
4 4 GOLDEN LINK B1 M Chadwick · P F Yiu 3 11.0 3/4
5 5 JUDY'S STAR N Callan · P O'Sullivan 9 12.0 1-1/4
6 1 SUNNY STAR C L Chau · K W Lui 14 38.0 1-1/2
7 3 DUBLIN STAR B C Y Ho · K L Man 6 7.3 2-1/2
8 9 ALL JOYFUL V- C Schofield · T P Yung 1 7.1 3
9 6 BEAUTY CHEERS J Moreira · J Size 10 8.6 3-1/4
10 14 PRAWN YEAH YEAH B/TT M L Yeung · R Gibson 8 153.0 6-1/4
11 11 COMFORT LIFE V/XB/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 5 24.0 6-3/4
12 2 G UNIT K H Chan · D A Hayes 12 47.0 7
13 8 HOT CHILI PEPPER B1/TT1 Z Purton · C S Shum 2 6.2 8-3/4
14 10 WINNING GENGHIS H1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 13 115.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALACTIC2. SUPER RED DRAGON+0.1L3. BREEZE OF SPRING+0.5L4. GOLDEN LINK+0.75L5. JUDY'S STAR+1.25L6. SUNNY STAR+1.5L7. DUBLIN STAR+2.5L8. ALL JOYFUL+3L9. BEAUTY CHEERS+3.25L10. PRAWN YEAH YEAH+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY CHEERS (25.0%) finished 9th — the winner GALACTIC was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 BEAUTY CHEERS 25.0% 4.00 9
2 8 HOT CHILI PEPPER 15.4% 6.48 13
3 3 DUBLIN STAR 9.4% 10.65 7
4 4 GOLDEN LINK 7.6% 13.23 4
5 11 COMFORT LIFE 7.4% 13.54 11
6 9 ALL JOYFUL 7.0% 14.35 8
7 13 SUPER RED DRAGON 6.0% 16.71 2
8 5 JUDY'S STAR 5.2% 19.14 5
9 1 SUNNY STAR 5.2% 19.18 6
10 7 GALACTIC 4.2% 23.60 1
11 12 BREEZE OF SPRING 3.4% 29.27 3
12 2 G UNIT 2.6% 38.89 12
13 14 PRAWN YEAH YEAH 1.1% 91.02 10
14 10 WINNING GENGHIS 0.5% 197.17 14
BEAUTY CHEERSHOT CHILI PEPPERDUBLIN STARGOLDEN LINKCOMFORT LIFEALL JOYFULSUPER RED DRAGONJUDY'S STARSUNNY STARGALACTIC — wonBREEZE OF SPRINGG UNITPRAWN YEAH YEAHWINNING GENGHIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 97.5

PLACE

7 34.5

12 27.5

13 20.5

QUINELLA

7,13 297.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,12 173

7,13 117.5

12,13 87

FORECAST

7,13 850

TIERCE

7,13,12 5,162

TRIO

7,12,13 911

FIRST 4

4,7,12,13 1,481

QUARTET

7,13,12,4 37,204

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 15.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE

4/7 362.5

4/13 59.5