Sha Tin · 2020-09-27
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-27 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. BELLA BABY, ridden by N Callan and trained by W Y So, won by N, with GREEN ENVY second and U W BROTHER third. The 2.6 favourite U W BROTHER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | BELLA BABY H-/XB/TT 0.57.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · W Y So | N Callan | W Y So | 6 | 7.4 | N |
| 2 | 6 | GREEN ENVY TT A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 11 | 19.0 | N |
| 3 | 10 | U W BROTHER J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 10 | 2.6 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 13 | JIMSON THE DRAGON B/TT K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 12 | 5.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | CORRE RAPIDO B V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 9 | 8.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | FANTASTIC FABIO B K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 8 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | READY CONQUEROR H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 1 | 42.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | SOLAR VICTORY H/TT1 A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 7 | 23.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | WONDER BRAHMA H M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 3 | 33.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | XIANG LAN QI C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 2 | 39.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | PLEASANT GUY H-/V M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 13 | 61.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | ROMAN ODYSSEY H-/XB/B1 Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 4 | 14.0 | 16 |
| 13 | 3 | BEAUT BEAUT H/V/TT C Schofield · L Ho | C Schofield | L Ho | 5 | 20.0 | 21-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | CORRE RAPIDO | 16.8% | 5.96 | 5 |
| 2 | 10 | U W BROTHER | 15.8% | 6.32 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | ROMAN ODYSSEY | 13.4% | 7.47 | 12 |
| 4 | 9 | BELLA BABY | 12.4% | 8.03 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | GREEN ENVY | 7.6% | 13.21 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | BEAUT BEAUT | 7.1% | 14.02 | 13 |
| 7 | 13 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 5.2% | 19.23 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | XIANG LAN QI | 4.1% | 24.50 | 10 |
| 9 | 4 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 4.0% | 25.08 | 6 |
| 10 | 2 | WONDER BRAHMA | 3.8% | 26.08 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | PLEASANT GUY | 3.8% | 26.23 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | SOLAR VICTORY | 3.2% | 31.16 | 8 |
| 13 | 1 | READY CONQUEROR | 2.7% | 36.48 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 74.5
PLACE
6 58.5
9 21
10 14
QUINELLA
6,9 658
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 204.5
6,10 109.5
9,10 40
FORECAST
9,6 1,504
TIERCE
9,6,10 5,383
TRIO
6,9,10 533
FIRST 4
6,9,10,13 582
QUARTET
9,6,10,13 18,975
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 32.5
A3 —