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Sha Tin · 2020-09-27

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 11 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GO GOAL TOBY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K H Ting, won by N, with GOLDEN FOUR second and KING DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite DIAMOND RHYME finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.22.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 GO GOAL TOBY Closed strongly 1.22.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K H Ting 7 38.0 N
2 2 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly P1 B Shinn · C W Chang 5 6.7 N
3 7 KING DRAGON Closed strongly V/XB A Badel · K L Man 9 6.0 1
4 10 VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly K C Leung · C H Yip 3 14.0 1-1/4
5 11 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So 1 10.0 1-1/2
6 9 THE DRIVE B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 4 16.0 1-3/4
7 8 HAPPY TANGO B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 10 16.0 2-1/2
8 5 DIAMOND RHYME CP J Moreira · F C Lor 2 2.5 2-3/4
9 3 BEST FOR YOU B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 6 8.9 4-1/4
10 1 CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly E C Schofield · J Size 8 17.0 4-3/4
11 4 VIVA MAMA Led early V/TT N Callan · L Ho 11 91.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GO GOAL TOBY2. GOLDEN FOUR+0.05L3. KING DRAGON+1L4. VICTORIOUS LEADER+1.25L5. COPARTNER ERA+1.5L6. THE DRIVE+1.75L7. HAPPY TANGO+2.5L8. DIAMOND RHYME+2.75L9. BEST FOR YOU+4.25L10. CHAIRMAN LO+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DIAMOND RHYME (44.2%) finished 8th — the winner GO GOAL TOBY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 DIAMOND RHYME 44.2% 2.26 8
2 8 HAPPY TANGO 10.1% 9.88 7
3 7 KING DRAGON 9.7% 10.27 3
4 11 COPARTNER ERA 7.7% 13.03 5
5 3 BEST FOR YOU 6.7% 15.03 9
6 1 CHAIRMAN LO 5.8% 17.13 10
7 2 GOLDEN FOUR 5.5% 18.07 2
8 10 VICTORIOUS LEADER 3.9% 25.64 4
9 9 THE DRIVE 3.4% 29.54 6
10 6 GO GOAL TOBY 1.9% 52.19 1
11 4 VIVA MAMA 1.0% 100.66 11
DIAMOND RHYMEHAPPY TANGOKING DRAGONCOPARTNER ERABEST FOR YOUCHAIRMAN LOGOLDEN FOURVICTORIOUS LEADERTHE DRIVEGO GOAL TOBY — wonVIVA MAMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 384.5

PLACE

2 20.5

6 99

7 19

QUINELLA

2,6 1,516.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 407

2,7 67

6,7 326

FORECAST

6,2 3,360

TIERCE

6,2,7 21,499

TRIO

2,6,7 2,913

FIRST 4

2,6,7,10 5,403

QUARTET

6,2,7,10 165,156

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/2 28.5

3/6 1,352

3 PICK 1

A3 35

A1

A2