Sha Tin · 2020-09-27
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CALIFORNIA CONCORD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by NOSE, with CZARSON second and SILVER FIG third. The 3.1 favourite EIGHT TRIGRAMS finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD TT 1.10.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 12.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 4 | CZARSON CP M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 3 | 9.2 | NOSE |
| 3 | 2 | SILVER FIG B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 5 | 11.0 | SH |
| 4 | 7 | GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 10 | 9.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS B C L Chau · D J Hall | C L Chau | D J Hall | 4 | 3.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | THOU SHALL SING B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 5.9 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | MR WEALTH H/P V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 6 | 41.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | YOUNG THUNDER CP/TT1 H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 12 | 288.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | GOLFMAN STAR K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 116.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | SKY SHOW J Moreira · K H Ting | J Moreira | K H Ting | 7 | 3.4 | 14-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | KING'S HORN V-/B2 C Wong · L Ho | C Wong | L Ho | 11 | 305.0 | 16 |
| 12 | 11 | JOLLY GOOD HEART CP-/H-/XB/B1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 1 | 57.0 | 26-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SKY SHOW | 34.4% | 2.90 | 10 |
| 2 | 5 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS | 19.1% | 5.25 | 5 |
| 3 | 12 | THOU SHALL SING | 15.1% | 6.62 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 8.7% | 11.47 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | SILVER FIG | 5.6% | 17.80 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | GRATEFUL HEART | 5.3% | 18.84 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | CZARSON | 4.6% | 21.53 | 2 |
| 8 | 1 | MR WEALTH | 3.0% | 32.98 | 7 |
| 9 | 11 | JOLLY GOOD HEART | 1.4% | 70.89 | 12 |
| 10 | 6 | GOLFMAN STAR | 1.3% | 76.41 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | YOUNG THUNDER | 0.7% | 137.34 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | KING'S HORN | 0.6% | 155.54 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 124.5
PLACE
2 34
3 30.5
4 25.5
QUINELLA
3,4 486
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 162
2,4 104
3,4 123.5
FORECAST
3,4 767
TIERCE
3,4,2 5,580
TRIO
2,3,4 821
FIRST 4
2,3,4,7 2,145
QUARTET
3,4,2,7 51,719
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,8/2,3,4 27,965
3 PICK 1
A3 44.5
A1 —
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
4/3 420
4/4 30.5