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Sha Tin · 2020-09-27

Race 8

Group 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.20.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOLDEN SIXTY Closed strongly 1.20.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 1.8 1-3/4
2 0 BEAUTY GENERATION Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 1 4.9 1-3/4
2 0 CHAMPION'S WAY Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · J Size 4 8.8 1-3/4
4 0 SOUTHERN LEGEND TT B Shinn · C Fownes 5 38.0 2-1/2
5 0 BUDDIES H2/TT2 K Teetan · A S Cruz 9 22.0 3-1/2
6 0 FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly A Badel · D J Hall 10 18.0 4
7 0 DANCES WITH DRAGON Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 6 15.0 4
8 0 PRECIOUSSHIP Closed strongly XB M F Poon · P F Yiu 7 63.0 7-1/2
9 0 RATTAN B A Hamelin · R Gibson 11 22.0 8
10 0 KA YING STAR Led early V/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 3 10.0 8-1/4
11 0 ELUSIVE STATE TT M Chadwick · A T Millard 8 225.0 10

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-27 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN SIXTY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with BEAUTY GENERATION second and CHAMPION'S WAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN SIXTY—2. BEAUTY GENERATION+1.75L2. CHAMPION'S WAY+1.75L4. SOUTHERN LEGEND+2.5L5. BUDDIES+3.5L6. FAST MOST FURIOUS+4L7. DANCES WITH DRAGON+4L8. PRECIOUSSHIP+7.5L9. RATTAN+8L10. KA YING STAR+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY GENERATION (31.1%) finished 2nd — the winner GOLDEN SIXTY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY GENERATION 31.1% 3.22 2
2 0 GOLDEN SIXTY 19.2% 5.20 1
3 0 CHAMPION'S WAY 11.1% 9.00 2
4 0 BUDDIES 10.1% 9.95 5
5 0 KA YING STAR 9.9% 10.13 10
6 0 DANCES WITH DRAGON 4.8% 20.90 7
7 0 FAST MOST FURIOUS 3.4% 29.11 6
8 0 SOUTHERN LEGEND 3.3% 30.63 4
9 0 PRECIOUSSHIP 3.1% 32.56 8
10 0 RATTAN 2.2% 46.38 9
11 0 ELUSIVE STATE 1.9% 52.51 11
BEAUTY GENERATIONGOLDEN SIXTY — wonCHAMPION'S WAYBUDDIESKA YING STARDANCES WITH DRAGONFAST MOST FURIOUSSOUTHERN LEGENDPRECIOUSSHIPRATTANELUSIVE STATE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 18

PLACE

1 16

6 11.5

8 28.5

QUINELLA

1,6 22

6,8 39.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 20.5

1,8 80

6,8 39.5

FORECAST

6,1 28

6,8 77

TIERCE

6,1,8 183

6,8,1 227

TRIO

1,6,8 107

FIRST 4

1,2,6,8 451

QUARTET

6,1,8,2 1,635

6,8,1,2 2,558

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 18

A3 —

A2 —

7TH DOUBLE

3/1 46.5

3/6 336.5

3/8 151.5

WINNING TRAINER

B4 —

B3 18

B2 —

B1 —