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Sha Tin · 2020-09-27

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-27 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER WINNER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 2-1/4, with THE FULL BLOOM second and GREAT HARVEST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SUPER WINNER Closed strongly B-/TT 1.21.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip 7 2.9 2-1/4
2 14 THE FULL BLOOM Closed strongly V1 M F Poon · C H Yip 11 21.0 2-1/4
3 8 GREAT HARVEST Closed strongly B M Chadwick · K L Man 13 37.0 3-3/4
4 9 BLAZING PARTNERS Closed strongly SR-/B1 N Callan · D E Ferraris 3 13.0 5
5 6 GALAXY EMPEROR CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 5.3 5-1/4
6 4 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 6.3 5-1/2
7 2 SMILING SUCCESS Led early B/TT C L Chau · K H Ting 1 8.8 5-3/4
8 1 PRIME TIME Closed strongly B/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui 14 210.0 6-1/2
9 13 SHOW MISSION B V Borges · C W Chang 4 99.0 7-1/2
10 5 SACRED TIMING Closed strongly B C Schofield · D A Hayes 10 24.0 8
11 11 BRAVERY AND POWER TT J Moreira · W Y So 12 5.7 10-1/4
12 7 KANBEKI MOLLY SR A Badel · A T Millard 5 79.0 13
13 10 ROCHFORD V C Wong · L Ho 8 104.0 13-3/4
14 12 DASHING GRACE V H T Mo · T P Yung 2 329.0 21-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER WINNER2. THE FULL BLOOM+2.25L3. GREAT HARVEST+3.75L4. BLAZING PARTNERS+5L5. GALAXY EMPEROR+5.25L6. NUNCHUKS+5.5L7. SMILING SUCCESS+5.75L8. PRIME TIME+6.5L9. SHOW MISSION+7.5L10. SACRED TIMING+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GALAXY EMPEROR (18.5%) finished 5th — the winner SUPER WINNER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GALAXY EMPEROR 18.5% 5.41 5
2 11 BRAVERY AND POWER 13.8% 7.27 11
3 3 SUPER WINNER 11.3% 8.84 1
4 4 NUNCHUKS 11.3% 8.86 6
5 2 SMILING SUCCESS 9.7% 10.32 7
6 5 SACRED TIMING 8.0% 12.50 10
7 10 ROCHFORD 5.9% 16.95 13
8 9 BLAZING PARTNERS 5.4% 18.35 4
9 7 KANBEKI MOLLY 5.3% 19.01 12
10 8 GREAT HARVEST 4.9% 20.33 3
11 13 SHOW MISSION 2.4% 42.49 9
12 14 THE FULL BLOOM 2.2% 44.94 2
13 12 DASHING GRACE 0.7% 137.03 14
14 1 PRIME TIME 0.6% 161.10 8
GALAXY EMPERORBRAVERY AND POWERSUPER WINNER — wonNUNCHUKSSMILING SUCCESSSACRED TIMINGROCHFORDBLAZING PARTNERSKANBEKI MOLLYGREAT HARVESTSHOW MISSIONTHE FULL BLOOMDASHING GRACEPRIME TIME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 29

PLACE

3 14

8 88.5

14 58

QUINELLA

3,14 317.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 186.5

3,14 103

8,14 594

FORECAST

3,14 462

TIERCE

3,14,8 9,377

TRIO

3,8,14 3,141

FIRST 4

3,8,9,14 9,920

QUARTET

3,14,8,9 134,176

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/3 343.5

9/14 262

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 18.5