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Sha Tin · 2020-09-27

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPER WINNER Closed strongly B-/TT 1.21.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip 7 2.9 2-1/4
2 0 THE FULL BLOOM Closed strongly V1 M F Poon · C H Yip 11 21.0 2-1/4
3 0 GREAT HARVEST Closed strongly B M Chadwick · K L Man 13 37.0 3-3/4
4 0 BLAZING PARTNERS Closed strongly SR-/B1 N Callan · D E Ferraris 3 13.0 5
5 0 GALAXY EMPEROR CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 5.3 5-1/4
6 0 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 6.3 5-1/2
7 0 SMILING SUCCESS Led early B/TT C L Chau · K H Ting 1 8.8 5-3/4
8 0 PRIME TIME Closed strongly B/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui 14 210.0 6-1/2
9 0 SHOW MISSION B V Borges · C W Chang 4 99.0 7-1/2
10 0 SACRED TIMING Closed strongly B C Schofield · D A Hayes 10 24.0 8
11 0 BRAVERY AND POWER TT J Moreira · W Y So 12 5.7 10-1/4
12 0 KANBEKI MOLLY SR A Badel · A T Millard 5 79.0 13
13 0 ROCHFORD V C Wong · L Ho 8 104.0 13-3/4
14 0 DASHING GRACE V H T Mo · T P Yung 2 329.0 21-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-27 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER WINNER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 2-1/4, with THE FULL BLOOM second and GREAT HARVEST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER WINNER—2. THE FULL BLOOM+2.25L3. GREAT HARVEST+3.75L4. BLAZING PARTNERS+5L5. GALAXY EMPEROR+5.25L6. NUNCHUKS+5.5L7. SMILING SUCCESS+5.75L8. PRIME TIME+6.5L9. SHOW MISSION+7.5L10. SACRED TIMING+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GALAXY EMPEROR (18.5%) finished 5th — the winner SUPER WINNER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GALAXY EMPEROR 18.5% 5.41 5
2 0 BRAVERY AND POWER 13.8% 7.27 11
3 0 SUPER WINNER 11.3% 8.84 1
4 0 NUNCHUKS 11.3% 8.86 6
5 0 SMILING SUCCESS 9.7% 10.32 7
6 0 SACRED TIMING 8.0% 12.50 10
7 0 ROCHFORD 5.9% 16.95 13
8 0 BLAZING PARTNERS 5.4% 18.35 4
9 0 KANBEKI MOLLY 5.3% 19.01 12
10 0 GREAT HARVEST 4.9% 20.33 3
11 0 SHOW MISSION 2.4% 42.49 9
12 0 THE FULL BLOOM 2.2% 44.94 2
13 0 DASHING GRACE 0.7% 137.03 14
14 0 PRIME TIME 0.6% 161.10 8
GALAXY EMPERORBRAVERY AND POWERSUPER WINNER — wonNUNCHUKSSMILING SUCCESSSACRED TIMINGROCHFORDBLAZING PARTNERSKANBEKI MOLLYGREAT HARVESTSHOW MISSIONTHE FULL BLOOMDASHING GRACEPRIME TIME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 29

PLACE

3 14

8 88.5

14 58

QUINELLA

3,14 317.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 186.5

3,14 103

8,14 594

FORECAST

3,14 462

TIERCE

3,14,8 9,377

TRIO

3,8,14 3,141

FIRST 4

3,8,9,14 9,920

QUARTET

3,14,8,9 134,176

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/3 343.5

9/14 262

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 18.5

A3 —