沙田 · 2020-10-11
第 10場
2020-10-11沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由M Chadwick策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CALIFORNIA RAD勝出，贏出N。GOOD LUCK FRIEND獲得亞軍；BAND OF BROTHERS獲得季軍。2.3倍大熱門LUCKY EXPRESS跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT 1.08.63 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 9.9 | N |
| 2 | 8 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 8 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 2 | BAND OF BROTHERS B N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 8.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | THE CROWN H1 C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 1 | 31.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | LUCKY EXPRESS E/TT C Y Ho · J Size | C Y Ho | J Size | 2 | 2.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | WATER DIVINER B/H/TT H T Mo · K W Lui | H T Mo | K W Lui | 3 | 26.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPER STAR TT M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 9 | 48.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | WINNING METHOD TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 3.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 6 | 82.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | SHINING ACE B C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 5 | 29.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | MR CROISSANT CP A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 10 | 73.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 13 | ARMANDO A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 12 | 19.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 12 | TOUCH OF LUCK CP V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 13 | 141.0 | 10-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY EXPRESS | 33.9% | 2.95 | 5 |
| 2 | 8 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 12.1% | 8.28 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 11.9% | 8.41 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | WINNING METHOD | 8.7% | 11.53 | 8 |
| 5 | 2 | BAND OF BROTHERS | 7.2% | 13.81 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | TOUCH OF LUCK | 6.7% | 14.89 | 13 |
| 7 | 1 | SHINING ACE | 3.9% | 25.43 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | MR CROISSANT | 3.6% | 27.78 | 11 |
| 9 | 13 | ARMANDO | 3.3% | 30.58 | 12 |
| 10 | 6 | WATER DIVINER | 2.8% | 35.73 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | THE CROWN | 2.1% | 48.02 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | SUPER STAR | 2.0% | 50.47 | 7 |
| 13 | 10 | TEAM SPIRIT | 1.8% | 55.08 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 99
PLACE
2 22.5
7 25.5
8 26.5
QUINELLA
7,8 387
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 100.5
2,8 101.5
7,8 108.5
FORECAST
7,8 721
TIERCE
7,8,2 4,089
TRIO
2,7,8 998
FIRST 4
2,7,8,11 5,227
QUARTET
7,8,2,11 112,226
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 31
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,11/2,7,8 2,204,146
9TH DOUBLE
6/7 902
6/8 129
SIX UP
1,8/3,12/3,10/1,4/6,11/7,8 184,755
8/3/10/1/6/7 8,233,479
4 [M Chadwick] —
TREBLE
1/6/7 13,502
1/6/8 1,728