跑馬地 · 2020-10-21
第 8場
2020-10-21跑馬地第8場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Badel策騎、C S Shum訓練的GRATEFUL HEART勝出，贏出1/2。HIGH RISE SOLDIER獲得亞軍；CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT獲得季軍。3.3倍大熱門PRINCE OF GEMS跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT 1.08.75 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 6 | 16.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER B Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 5 | 6.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP1/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 2 | 6.6 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | FLYING BONUS K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 4 | 4.8 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | WIND N GRASS TT N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 3 | 7.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | CUE THE MUSIC B/TT J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 8 | 26.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | PRINCE OF GEMS TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 1 | 3.3 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT C Wong · F C Lor | C Wong | F C Lor | 11 | 61.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | AMAZING KIWI B/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 7 | 9.7 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 9 | 133.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | SHADOW RUNNER K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 110.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 10 | 52.0 | 8-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | PRINCE OF GEMS | 25.0% | 4.00 | 7 |
| 2 | 1 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 18.0% | 5.55 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 12.4% | 8.04 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | WIND N GRASS | 9.8% | 10.20 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | FLYING BONUS | 7.1% | 14.15 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | AMAZING KIWI | 6.9% | 14.44 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | BEAUTY SPARK | 6.2% | 16.24 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | CUE THE MUSIC | 5.0% | 20.07 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | GRATEFUL HEART | 3.8% | 26.29 | 1 |
| 10 | 12 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING | 3.2% | 31.48 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | SHADOW RUNNER | 1.8% | 57.11 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 0.9% | 112.56 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 164.5
PLACE
1 21
5 21.5
11 38
QUINELLA
5,11 524.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 71
1,11 144.5
5,11 162.5
FORECAST
11,5 969
TIERCE
11,5,1 6,815
TRIO
1,5,11 833
FIRST 4
1,5,6,11 873
QUARTET
11,5,1,6 27,881
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 39.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,7/1,5,11 16,728
7TH DOUBLE
7/5 56
7/11 1,039
SIX UP
10/2/3,8,10/1/7/11 576,687
10,11/1,2/3,8,10,11/1,10/2,7/5,11 4,164
3 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
1/7/5 400
1/7/11 8,854