跑馬地 · 2020-10-21
第 4場
2020-10-21跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、F C Lor訓練的WE THE SOUTH勝出，贏出1-1/2。HAPPY GOOD GUYS獲得亞軍；ARDENODE獲得季軍。4.6倍大熱門JAZZ STEED跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | WE THE SOUTH H/XB 0.56.97 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 11 | 6.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 1 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | ARDENODE TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 6 | 4.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | JAZZ STEED TT M F Poon · C Fownes | M F Poon | C Fownes | 2 | 4.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | COMPASSION STAR M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 5 | 53.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | HIN YUEN BIS TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 9 | 4.9 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 3 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | SUN OF MAKFI XB B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 12 | 79.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | LITTLE THUNDER B C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 4 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 5 | G UNIT B2 K H Chan · D A Hayes | K H Chan | D A Hayes | 7 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | SEVENTH SEA SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 10 | 51.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | COUNTRY BOY TT1 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 8 | 40.0 | 25-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | JAZZ STEED | 19.1% | 5.22 | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | WE THE SOUTH | 18.4% | 5.43 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | ARDENODE | 14.2% | 7.04 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | LITTLE THUNDER | 10.8% | 9.23 | 9 |
| 5 | 7 | COUNTRY BOY | 7.1% | 14.10 | 12 |
| 6 | 8 | HIN YUEN BIS | 6.9% | 14.39 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 5.5% | 18.12 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 4.3% | 23.08 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | G UNIT | 3.7% | 26.99 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | SEVENTH SEA | 3.4% | 29.04 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | SUN OF MAKFI | 3.3% | 30.76 | 8 |
| 12 | 6 | COMPASSION STAR | 3.1% | 32.12 | 5 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 65
PLACE
1 34
2 26.5
12 18
QUINELLA
1,2 410
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 129.5
1,12 89.5
2,12 69
FORECAST
2,1 657
TIERCE
2,1,12 2,645
TRIO
1,2,12 506
FIRST 4
1,2,4,12 348
QUARTET
2,1,12,4 9,153
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
5,10,11/1,2,12 48,537
3 PICK 1
A1 27.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
10/1 118
10/2 218.5