沙田 · 2020-11-14
第 4場
2020-11-14沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由K C Leung策騎、F C Lor訓練的DIAMOND RHYME勝出，贏出1-3/4。MASTER HERO獲得亞軍；SO AWESOME獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.4倍大熱門SO AWESOME跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | DIAMOND RHYME 後段發力 XB1 1.21.84 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 3 | 7.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | MASTER HERO 後段發力 XB1/TT1 C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 1 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | SO AWESOME 後段發力 J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 8 | 4.4 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | ULTIMATE GLORY 後段發力 V Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 13 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | NATURAL WINNER CP/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 6 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | SURE WIN WIN 後段發力 T Piccone · T P Yung | T Piccone | T P Yung | 14 | 84.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | SMART WONGCHOY 早段領放 H-/P-/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 4.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | GOLDEN FOUR 後段發力 K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 5 | 8.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | RIGHTEOUS WIN B V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 4 | 152.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SEVENTH SEA 後段發力 SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 11 | 106.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | MIGHTY POWER BO-/B1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 7 | 7.5 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | SUN SUN FA FA TT B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 2 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 8 | SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 12 | 51.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | DEMONS ROCK B H N Wong · D J Hall | H N Wong | D J Hall | 9 | 119.0 | 10-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SO AWESOME | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | MIGHTY POWER | 11.0% | 9.11 | 11 |
| 3 | 1 | GOLDEN FOUR | 10.6% | 9.40 | 8 |
| 4 | 5 | MASTER HERO | 10.2% | 9.78 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | SMART WONGCHOY | 8.9% | 11.20 | 7 |
| 6 | 10 | DIAMOND RHYME | 7.9% | 12.72 | 1 |
| 7 | 2 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 6.4% | 15.74 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | NATURAL WINNER | 5.0% | 20.14 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | SUN SUN FA FA | 3.7% | 27.14 | 12 |
| 10 | 13 | DEMONS ROCK | 3.2% | 30.97 | 14 |
| 11 | 8 | SUNNY AND GOLD | 2.3% | 42.83 | 13 |
| 12 | 11 | SEVENTH SEA | 1.5% | 64.66 | 10 |
| 13 | 12 | SURE WIN WIN | 1.4% | 73.29 | 6 |
| 14 | 14 | RIGHTEOUS WIN | 0.7% | 141.08 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 73.5
PLACE
4 16.5
5 47
10 25.5
QUINELLA
5,10 469.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 135
4,10 61.5
5,10 182.5
FORECAST
10,5 1,098
TIERCE
10,5,4 6,115
TRIO
4,5,10 725
FIRST 4
2,4,5,10 2,197
QUARTET
10,5,4,2 58,494
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
5,7,8/4,5,10 16,915
3 PICK 1
A2 21.5
A3 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
5/5 285.5
5/10 724.5