沙田 · 2020-11-14
第 6場
2020-11-14沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由C L Chau策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的CASIMIRO勝出，贏出N。ALL FOR ST PAUL'S獲得亞軍；SEAWEED FORTUNE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。5.2倍大熱門DECISIVE ACTION跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CASIMIRO 後段發力 1.34.89 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 7.9 | N |
| 2 | 10 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 早段領放 B K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 7 | 39.0 | N |
| 3 | 5 | SEAWEED FORTUNE 後段發力 CP-/B1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 5.8 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | BULLETPROOF 後段發力 B V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 13 | 8.7 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | DECISIVE ACTION 後段發力 TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 5.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | FAMILY LEADER 後段發力 B J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 14 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 14 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT C Wong · A S Cruz | C Wong | A S Cruz | 1 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | EVER LAUGH B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 8 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 12 | JIMMU 後段發力 SR A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 12 | 28.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | MARVELOUS FANS E N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 10 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | SPEED FORCE XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 3 | 50.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 5 | 9.5 | 4 |
| 13 | 11 | APEX TOP B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 4 | 38.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 14 | 4 | LIGHT MY DAY CP/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 6 | 20.0 | 7-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BULLETPROOF | 22.3% | 4.47 | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 14.3% | 6.98 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | FAMILY LEADER | 12.0% | 8.35 | 6 |
| 4 | 1 | DECISIVE ACTION | 6.9% | 14.52 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 6.9% | 14.59 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | MARVELOUS FANS | 6.5% | 15.32 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | LIGHT MY DAY | 6.1% | 16.34 | 14 |
| 8 | 14 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 4.3% | 23.41 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | EVER LAUGH | 4.1% | 24.25 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | CASIMIRO | 3.8% | 26.61 | 1 |
| 11 | 11 | APEX TOP | 3.6% | 27.68 | 13 |
| 12 | 12 | JIMMU | 3.2% | 31.64 | 9 |
| 13 | 13 | SPEED FORCE | 3.2% | 31.70 | 11 |
| 14 | 3 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT | 2.9% | 34.79 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 79
PLACE
5 21
9 25
10 104.5
QUINELLA
9,10 1,433
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 84
5,10 265.5
9,10 426
FORECAST
9,10 2,503
TIERCE
9,10,5 14,109
TRIO
5,9,10 2,858
FIRST 4
5,8,9,10 5,930
QUARTET
9,10,5,8 149,905
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 17.5
A1 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
6/9 1,402
6/10 736
TRIPLE TRIO
4,5,10/6,9,10/5,9,10 9,544,860
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,5,10/6,9,10/Any Combination 3,174