Sha Tin · 2020-11-14
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-14 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CASIMIRO, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with ALL FOR ST PAUL'S second and SEAWEED FORTUNE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.2 favourite DECISIVE ACTION finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CASIMIRO Closed strongly 1.34.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 7.9 | N |
| 2 | 10 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 7 | 39.0 | N |
| 3 | 5 | SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 5.8 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | BULLETPROOF Closed strongly B V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 13 | 8.7 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 5.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | FAMILY LEADER Closed strongly B J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 14 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 14 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT C Wong · A S Cruz | C Wong | A S Cruz | 1 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | EVER LAUGH B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 8 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 12 | JIMMU Closed strongly SR A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 12 | 28.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | MARVELOUS FANS E N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 10 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | SPEED FORCE XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 3 | 50.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 5 | 9.5 | 4 |
| 13 | 11 | APEX TOP B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 4 | 38.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 14 | 4 | LIGHT MY DAY CP/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 6 | 20.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BULLETPROOF | 22.3% | 4.47 | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 14.3% | 6.98 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | FAMILY LEADER | 12.0% | 8.35 | 6 |
| 4 | 1 | DECISIVE ACTION | 6.9% | 14.52 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 6.9% | 14.59 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | MARVELOUS FANS | 6.5% | 15.32 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | LIGHT MY DAY | 6.1% | 16.34 | 14 |
| 8 | 14 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 4.3% | 23.41 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | EVER LAUGH | 4.1% | 24.25 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | CASIMIRO | 3.8% | 26.61 | 1 |
| 11 | 11 | APEX TOP | 3.6% | 27.68 | 13 |
| 12 | 12 | JIMMU | 3.2% | 31.64 | 9 |
| 13 | 13 | SPEED FORCE | 3.2% | 31.70 | 11 |
| 14 | 3 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT | 2.9% | 34.79 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 79
PLACE
5 21
9 25
10 104.5
QUINELLA
9,10 1,433
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 84
5,10 265.5
9,10 426
FORECAST
9,10 2,503
TIERCE
9,10,5 14,109
TRIO
5,9,10 2,858
FIRST 4
5,8,9,10 5,930
QUARTET
9,10,5,8 149,905
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 17.5
A1 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
6/9 1,402
6/10 736
TRIPLE TRIO
4,5,10/6,9,10/5,9,10 9,544,860
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,5,10/6,9,10/Any Combination 3,174