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Sha Tin · 2020-11-14

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-14 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DIAMOND RHYME, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with MASTER HERO second and SO AWESOME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite SO AWESOME finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 DIAMOND RHYME Closed strongly XB1 1.21.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 3 7.3 1-3/4
2 5 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB1/TT1 C Y Ho · A S Cruz 1 13.0 1-3/4
3 4 SO AWESOME Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui 8 4.4 2
4 2 ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V Z Purton · K L Man 13 12.0 2-1/4
5 9 NATURAL WINNER CP/TT A Badel · R Gibson 6 11.0 2-1/2
6 12 SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly T Piccone · T P Yung 14 84.0 3
7 6 SMART WONGCHOY Led early H-/P-/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 4.9 3-1/4
8 1 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly K Teetan · C W Chang 5 8.0 3-3/4
9 14 RIGHTEOUS WIN B V Borges · P F Yiu 4 152.0 3-3/4
10 11 SEVENTH SEA Closed strongly SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris 11 106.0 5-1/2
11 3 MIGHTY POWER BO-/B1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 7 7.5 5-1/2
12 7 SUN SUN FA FA TT B Shinn · W Y So 2 10.0 5-3/4
13 8 SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 12 51.0 6-3/4
14 13 DEMONS ROCK B H N Wong · D J Hall 9 119.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIAMOND RHYME2. MASTER HERO+1.75L3. SO AWESOME+2L4. ULTIMATE GLORY+2.25L5. NATURAL WINNER+2.5L6. SURE WIN WIN+3L7. SMART WONGCHOY+3.25L8. GOLDEN FOUR+3.75L9. RIGHTEOUS WIN+3.75L10. SEVENTH SEA+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SO AWESOME (27.2%) finished 3rd — the winner DIAMOND RHYME was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SO AWESOME 27.2% 3.68 3
2 3 MIGHTY POWER 11.0% 9.11 11
3 1 GOLDEN FOUR 10.6% 9.40 8
4 5 MASTER HERO 10.2% 9.78 2
5 6 SMART WONGCHOY 8.9% 11.20 7
6 10 DIAMOND RHYME 7.9% 12.72 1
7 2 ULTIMATE GLORY 6.4% 15.74 4
8 9 NATURAL WINNER 5.0% 20.14 5
9 7 SUN SUN FA FA 3.7% 27.14 12
10 13 DEMONS ROCK 3.2% 30.97 14
11 8 SUNNY AND GOLD 2.3% 42.83 13
12 11 SEVENTH SEA 1.5% 64.66 10
13 12 SURE WIN WIN 1.4% 73.29 6
14 14 RIGHTEOUS WIN 0.7% 141.08 9
SO AWESOMEMIGHTY POWERGOLDEN FOURMASTER HEROSMART WONGCHOYDIAMOND RHYME — wonULTIMATE GLORYNATURAL WINNERSUN SUN FA FADEMONS ROCKSUNNY AND GOLDSEVENTH SEASURE WIN WINRIGHTEOUS WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 73.5

PLACE

4 16.5

5 47

10 25.5

QUINELLA

5,10 469.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 135

4,10 61.5

5,10 182.5

FORECAST

10,5 1,098

TIERCE

10,5,4 6,115

TRIO

4,5,10 725

FIRST 4

2,4,5,10 2,197

QUARTET

10,5,4,2 58,494

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,8/4,5,10 16,915

3 PICK 1

A2 21.5

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE

5/5 285.5

5/10 724.5