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Sha Tin · 2020-11-14

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER RED DRAGON, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by 1, with INNO LEGEND second and BREEZE OF SPRING third. The 3.0 favourite INNO LEGEND finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT 1.09.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So 10 10.0 1
2 7 INNO LEGEND CP Z Purton · K L Man 2 3.0 1
3 8 BREEZE OF SPRING CP/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 9 4.2 1-1/2
4 11 QIPAO BOSS M Chadwick · D J Hall 6 13.0 1-1/2
5 10 LITTLE THUNDER B A Hamelin · A T Millard 8 51.0 3-1/4
6 12 VICTORIOUS LEADER V- C Wong · C H Yip 1 22.0 3-3/4
7 3 RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size 12 8.1 5
8 6 HAPPY JAI JAI XB1/TT1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 5 102.0 5
9 1 GRAND POWER B Shinn · C W Chang 4 182.0 5-1/2
10 4 VECTOR H1/TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 3.9 7
11 2 PRECISION DREAM B-/H1 V Borges · T P Yung 11 268.0 11-3/4
12 9 EASY DAZZLING B-/H/P1/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 87.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER RED DRAGON2. INNO LEGEND+1L3. BREEZE OF SPRING+1.5L4. QIPAO BOSS+1.5L5. LITTLE THUNDER+3.25L6. VICTORIOUS LEADER+3.75L7. RHAPSODY+5L8. HAPPY JAI JAI+5L9. GRAND POWER+5.5L10. VECTOR+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick RHAPSODY (28.4%) finished 7th — the winner SUPER RED DRAGON was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 RHAPSODY 28.4% 3.52 7
2 7 INNO LEGEND 17.1% 5.83 2
3 4 VECTOR 13.5% 7.43 10
4 5 SUPER RED DRAGON 12.5% 8.01 1
5 8 BREEZE OF SPRING 8.9% 11.24 3
6 11 QIPAO BOSS 6.9% 14.54 4
7 12 VICTORIOUS LEADER 4.8% 21.00 6
8 10 LITTLE THUNDER 4.3% 23.20 5
9 1 GRAND POWER 1.4% 73.69 9
10 9 EASY DAZZLING 1.1% 87.88 12
11 6 HAPPY JAI JAI 0.8% 129.21 8
12 2 PRECISION DREAM 0.4% 240.18 11
RHAPSODYINNO LEGENDVECTORSUPER RED DRAGON — wonBREEZE OF SPRINGQIPAO BOSSVICTORIOUS LEADERLITTLE THUNDERGRAND POWEREASY DAZZLINGHAPPY JAI JAIPRECISION DREAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 104

PLACE

5 24.5

7 14

8 17.5

QUINELLA

5,7 163.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 53.5

5,8 61

7,8 31.5

FORECAST

5,7 371

TIERCE

5,7,8 1,466

TRIO

5,7,8 168

FIRST 4

5,7,8,11 317

QUARTET

5,7,8,11 9,046

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/5 652

6/7 49.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 52.5

A2