Sha Tin · 2020-11-14
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-14 was Class 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BUDDIES, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with LUCKY EXPRESS second and SUPER WEALTHY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.7 favourite LUCKY EXPRESS finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BUDDIES Wire to wire H/TT 1.21.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 4 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 3 | 2.7 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | SUPER WEALTHY Closed strongly H1 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 7 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | BAND OF BROTHERS Closed strongly B N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 7.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | CIRCUIT GLORY H/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 2 | 8.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 9 | 9.9 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | BEAUTY LEGACY E/TT C Y Ho · J Size | C Y Ho | J Size | 5 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | WATER DIVINER B/H/TT H T Mo · K W Lui | H T Mo | K W Lui | 1 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | JOLLY BANNER B C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 6 | 13.0 | 6 |
| — | 5 | STAR SHINE J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LUCKY EXPRESS | 36.3% | 2.75 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | BEAUTY LEGACY | 10.6% | 9.40 | 7 |
| 3 | 8 | SUPER WEALTHY | 10.3% | 9.70 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | CIRCUIT GLORY | 9.1% | 10.94 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | BUDDIES | 8.8% | 11.34 | 1 |
| 6 | 1 | FAST MOST FURIOUS | 7.3% | 13.67 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | JOLLY BANNER | 6.5% | 15.41 | 9 |
| 8 | 4 | BAND OF BROTHERS | 6.3% | 15.77 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | WATER DIVINER | 4.6% | 21.58 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 117
PLACE
3 31
7 13.5
8 19
QUINELLA
3,7 153.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 53.5
3,8 90
7,8 34.5
FORECAST
3,7 381
TIERCE
3,7,8 1,985
TRIO
3,7,8 192
FIRST 4
3,4,7,8 225
QUARTET
3,7,8,4 7,534
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,9,10/3,7,8 83,897
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 35
6TH DOUBLE
9/3 846.5
9/7 52
WINNING TRAINER
B2 —
B1 47.5
B3 —