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Sha Tin · 2020-11-14

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-14 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NAMJONG SINGS, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with CHEERFUL DAYS second and STUNNING IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite CHEERFUL DAYS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 NAMJONG SINGS Closed strongly B 1.21.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 5 12.0 1/2
2 9 CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly Z Purton · K W Lui 8 2.3 1/2
3 10 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly B- K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 3 5.5 2-1/4
4 12 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly XB- K C Leung · D J Hall 7 26.0 3
5 4 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 11 29.0 4-1/2
6 11 BRAVE POWER Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 4 9.4 4-1/2
7 7 UNICORNBABY B/TT N Callan · R Gibson 1 15.0 5
8 14 PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly TT C Wong · C Fownes 12 212.0 7
9 2 CARE FREE PRINCE Led early B K H Chan · K L Man 2 20.0 8
10 13 THE DRIVE B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 6 42.0 8
11 3 HELAKU KNIGHT H B Shinn · D A Hayes 13 41.0 8-3/4
12 1 BRIGHT VISION B T Piccone · P F Yiu 14 38.0 9-1/2
13 5 MOMENTUM HAPPY B C L Chau · K H Ting 10 7.5 9-3/4
14 8 ENJOY LIFE H N Wong · Y S Tsui 9 125.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NAMJONG SINGS2. CHEERFUL DAYS+0.5L3. STUNNING IMPACT+2.25L4. SUN OF MAKFI+3L5. LEADING FORTUNE+4.5L6. BRAVE POWER+4.5L7. UNICORNBABY+5L8. PERFECT TO PLAY+7L9. CARE FREE PRINCE+8L10. THE DRIVE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CHEERFUL DAYS (20.1%) finished 2nd — the winner NAMJONG SINGS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 CHEERFUL DAYS 20.1% 4.99 2
2 10 STUNNING IMPACT 14.6% 6.86 3
3 6 NAMJONG SINGS 13.3% 7.50 1
4 5 MOMENTUM HAPPY 10.9% 9.17 13
5 11 BRAVE POWER 8.0% 12.54 6
6 4 LEADING FORTUNE 6.8% 14.69 5
7 1 BRIGHT VISION 4.7% 21.15 12
8 3 HELAKU KNIGHT 4.1% 24.20 11
9 13 THE DRIVE 3.9% 25.65 10
10 2 CARE FREE PRINCE 3.2% 31.37 9
11 7 UNICORNBABY 3.1% 32.43 7
12 8 ENJOY LIFE 2.6% 38.72 14
13 14 PERFECT TO PLAY 2.5% 40.09 8
14 12 SUN OF MAKFI 2.2% 44.59 4
CHEERFUL DAYSSTUNNING IMPACTNAMJONG SINGS — wonMOMENTUM HAPPYBRAVE POWERLEADING FORTUNEBRIGHT VISIONHELAKU KNIGHTTHE DRIVECARE FREE PRINCEUNICORNBABYENJOY LIFEPERFECT TO PLAYSUN OF MAKFI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 123.5

PLACE

6 32.5

9 12.5

10 19

QUINELLA

6,9 133.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 54

6,10 99

9,10 31

FORECAST

6,9 453

TIERCE

6,9,10 1,911

TRIO

6,9,10 183

FIRST 4

6,9,10,12 911

QUARTET

6,9,10,12 26,775

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 27

A1

4TH DOUBLE

10/6 811

10/9 39.5