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Sha Tin · 2020-11-14

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-14 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. PING HAI BRAVO, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with JOYFUL FORTUNE second and FLYING GENIUS third. The 1.3 favourite JOYFUL FORTUNE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 PING HAI BRAVO E/TT1 0.56.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 2 22.0 1/2
2 12 JOYFUL FORTUNE Z Purton · D J Hall 7 1.3 1/2
3 9 FLYING GENIUS B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 3 30.0 1
4 3 ALL FOR SOUTH B N Callan · F C Lor 8 32.0 1-3/4
5 13 KURPANY TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 19.0 2-1/2
6 7 BABY B V Borges · K H Ting 5 141.0 3-1/2
7 4 BALTIC WHISPER TT C Wong · C S Shum 4 124.0 4-1/4
8 2 HARMONY SPIRIT CP-/XB/B1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 67.0 6
9 14 SPARKLING KNIGHT J Moreira · Y S Tsui 12 4.8 8-1/2
10 8 SHADOW RUNNER K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 6 200.0 11
11 1 MR WEALTH H/P/TT1 K H Chan · K L Man 1 142.0 11
12 5 DIVINE REGULUS TT1 K Teetan · W Y So 11 27.0 14-1/4
13 6 GOOD LUCK CHARM T Piccone · P F Yiu 13 188.0 16-1/4
10 PIANILLO M Chadwick · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PING HAI BRAVO2. JOYFUL FORTUNE+0.5L3. FLYING GENIUS+1L4. ALL FOR SOUTH+1.75L5. KURPANY+2.5L6. BABY+3.5L7. BALTIC WHISPER+4.25L8. HARMONY SPIRIT+6L9. SPARKLING KNIGHT+8.5L10. SHADOW RUNNER+11L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick JOYFUL FORTUNE (45.3%) finished 2nd — the winner PING HAI BRAVO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 JOYFUL FORTUNE 45.3% 2.21 2
2 14 SPARKLING KNIGHT 16.2% 6.19 9
3 11 PING HAI BRAVO 8.0% 12.50 1
4 3 ALL FOR SOUTH 6.3% 15.81 4
5 5 DIVINE REGULUS 4.9% 20.59 12
6 9 FLYING GENIUS 4.4% 22.61 3
7 2 HARMONY SPIRIT 4.2% 23.58 8
8 13 KURPANY 3.9% 25.90 5
9 1 MR WEALTH 3.2% 31.26 11
10 7 BABY 1.7% 58.13 6
11 6 GOOD LUCK CHARM 0.9% 108.30 13
12 4 BALTIC WHISPER 0.7% 144.52 7
13 8 SHADOW RUNNER 0.3% 336.25 10
JOYFUL FORTUNESPARKLING KNIGHTPING HAI BRAVO — wonALL FOR SOUTHDIVINE REGULUSFLYING GENIUSHARMONY SPIRITKURPANYMR WEALTHBABYGOOD LUCK CHARMBALTIC WHISPERSHADOW RUNNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 222.5

PLACE

9 35.5

11 30

12 10.1

QUINELLA

11,12 84.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 218.5

9,12 50

11,12 39

FORECAST

11,12 511

TIERCE

11,12,9 5,387

TRIO

9,11,12 409

FIRST 4

3,9,11,12 939

QUARTET

11,12,9,3 47,703

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 62.5

A2

A1

7TH DOUBLE

3/10,12 27.5

3/11 1,890.5