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Sha Tin · 2020-11-14

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-14 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY RUSH, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with INVINCIBLE MISSILE second and CIRCUIT THREE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite THE CROWN finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.21.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BEAUTY RUSH Wire to wire E 1.21.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size 12 8.5 3/4
2 2 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT T Piccone · W Y So 1 14.0 3/4
3 6 CIRCUIT THREE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 11 13.0 1-1/4
4 1 THINKIN' BIG B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 14 32.0 1-1/2
5 4 SUPER STAR Closed strongly TT A Badel · A T Millard 9 15.0 1-3/4
6 12 AWE Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 12.0 2
7 8 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B1 Z Purton · K W Lui 10 6.5 3
8 3 THE CROWN H J Moreira · C Fownes 4 3.2 3
9 11 ALCARI B C L Chau · P F Yiu 5 9.0 4
10 9 CRAIG'S STAR Closed strongly B M Chadwick · C S Shum 13 6.3 4-1/4
11 7 MISSION TYCOON B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 8 65.0 5-3/4
12 14 TURIN REDSTAR V-/TT C Wong · C H Yip 6 97.0 6-1/4
13 10 FANTASTIC SHOW B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 2 67.0 8-1/4
14 13 A A AGILITY H T Mo · L Ho 7 320.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY RUSH2. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+0.75L3. CIRCUIT THREE+1.25L4. THINKIN' BIG+1.5L5. SUPER STAR+1.75L6. AWE+2L7. NOBLE STEED+3L8. THE CROWN+3L9. ALCARI+4L10. CRAIG'S STAR+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick THE CROWN (17.7%) finished 8th — the winner BEAUTY RUSH was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 THE CROWN 17.7% 5.66 8
2 11 ALCARI 13.0% 7.71 9
3 9 CRAIG'S STAR 9.7% 10.28 10
4 6 CIRCUIT THREE 8.9% 11.28 3
5 12 AWE 8.4% 11.89 6
6 2 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 7.6% 13.11 2
7 8 NOBLE STEED 6.9% 14.42 7
8 5 BEAUTY RUSH 6.2% 16.09 1
9 1 THINKIN' BIG 5.2% 19.09 4
10 14 TURIN REDSTAR 5.2% 19.40 12
11 7 MISSION TYCOON 4.1% 24.32 11
12 10 FANTASTIC SHOW 4.0% 25.01 13
13 4 SUPER STAR 2.5% 40.06 5
14 13 A A AGILITY 0.6% 174.32 14
THE CROWNALCARICRAIG'S STARCIRCUIT THREEAWEINVINCIBLE MISSILENOBLE STEEDBEAUTY RUSH — wonTHINKIN' BIGTURIN REDSTARMISSION TYCOONFANTASTIC SHOWSUPER STARA A AGILITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 85.5

PLACE

2 35

5 29.5

6 43

QUINELLA

2,5 745

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 191.5

2,6 277.5

5,6 219.5

FORECAST

5,2 1,606

TIERCE

5,2,6 14,405

TRIO

2,5,6 4,262

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 15,775

QUARTET

5,2,6,1 299,843

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 32.5

A3

A1

8TH DOUBLE

11/2 672

11/5 1,975