Sha Tin · 2020-11-14
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-14 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY RUSH, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with INVINCIBLE MISSILE second and CIRCUIT THREE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite THE CROWN finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | BEAUTY RUSH Wire to wire E 1.21.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 12 | 8.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 1 | 14.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | CIRCUIT THREE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 11 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | THINKIN' BIG B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 14 | 32.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | SUPER STAR Closed strongly TT A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 9 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | AWE Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B1 Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 10 | 6.5 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | THE CROWN H J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 4 | 3.2 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | ALCARI B C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 5 | 9.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | CRAIG'S STAR Closed strongly B M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 13 | 6.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | MISSION TYCOON B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 65.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 14 | TURIN REDSTAR V-/TT C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 6 | 97.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 10 | FANTASTIC SHOW B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 2 | 67.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | A A AGILITY H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 7 | 320.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | THE CROWN | 17.7% | 5.66 | 8 |
| 2 | 11 | ALCARI | 13.0% | 7.71 | 9 |
| 3 | 9 | CRAIG'S STAR | 9.7% | 10.28 | 10 |
| 4 | 6 | CIRCUIT THREE | 8.9% | 11.28 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | AWE | 8.4% | 11.89 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 7.6% | 13.11 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | NOBLE STEED | 6.9% | 14.42 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | BEAUTY RUSH | 6.2% | 16.09 | 1 |
| 9 | 1 | THINKIN' BIG | 5.2% | 19.09 | 4 |
| 10 | 14 | TURIN REDSTAR | 5.2% | 19.40 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | MISSION TYCOON | 4.1% | 24.32 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 4.0% | 25.01 | 13 |
| 13 | 4 | SUPER STAR | 2.5% | 40.06 | 5 |
| 14 | 13 | A A AGILITY | 0.6% | 174.32 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 85.5
PLACE
2 35
5 29.5
6 43
QUINELLA
2,5 745
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 191.5
2,6 277.5
5,6 219.5
FORECAST
5,2 1,606
TIERCE
5,2,6 14,405
TRIO
2,5,6 4,262
FIRST 4
1,2,5,6 15,775
QUARTET
5,2,6,1 299,843
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 32.5
A3 —
A1 —
8TH DOUBLE
11/2 672
11/5 1,975