沙田 · 2020-11-22
第 10場
2020-11-22沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Y Ho策騎、F C Lor訓練的WINNING DREAMER勝出，贏出1-1/2。DUKE WAI獲得亞軍；BEAUTY APPLAUSE獲得季軍。頭馬以1.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | WINNING DREAMER 1.08.14 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 1 | 1.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | DUKE WAI B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 8.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 6.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | ALL IN MIND H/XB/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 11 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | SUNNY BOY B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 2 | 54.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 8 | 7.2 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 14 | 124.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | WINNING METHOD TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 9 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | SHINING ACE B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 6 | 76.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | MR CROISSANT CP H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 10 | 211.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 14 | SAUL'S SPECIAL B/H M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 5 | 245.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | GUNNISON C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 13 | 223.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 2 | VICTORIAM Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 12 | 22.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | BEAUTY AMIGO H W Lai · D A Hayes | H W Lai | D A Hayes | 7 | 287.0 | 19-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | WINNING DREAMER | 33.2% | 3.01 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE | 16.6% | 6.01 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 12.6% | 7.94 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | VICTORIAM | 8.6% | 11.67 | 13 |
| 5 | 3 | DUKE WAI | 7.7% | 13.04 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | WINNING METHOD | 5.4% | 18.44 | 8 |
| 7 | 11 | ALL IN MIND | 4.2% | 23.93 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE | 4.1% | 24.27 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | SHINING ACE | 2.2% | 45.96 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | SUNNY BOY | 1.5% | 67.18 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | GUNNISON | 1.5% | 67.92 | 12 |
| 12 | 14 | SAUL'S SPECIAL | 1.1% | 89.65 | 11 |
| 13 | 5 | MR CROISSANT | 0.8% | 128.88 | 10 |
| 14 | 13 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 0.6% | 177.64 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 18
PLACE
3 22.5
8 18.5
10 11
QUINELLA
3,10 92.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 73
3,10 40
8,10 24.5
FORECAST
10,3 131
TIERCE
10,3,8 452
TRIO
3,8,10 134
FIRST 4
3,8,10,11 310
QUARTET
10,3,8,11 3,271
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 18
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,5/3,8,10 2,911
9TH DOUBLE
5/3 73
5/10 74
SIX UP
1,7/3,11/1,3/1,9/1,5/3,10 288
1/11/3/1/5/10 37,784
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
1/5/3 532
1/5/10 889