沙田 · 2020-12-26
第 4場
2020-12-26沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的SIGHT SUCCESS勝出，贏出1-1/2。FIRE BALL獲得亞軍；FREE FOAL獲得季軍。頭馬以1.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SIGHT SUCCESS E1 1.09.23 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 14 | 1.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 14 | FIRE BALL TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 11 | 21.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | FREE FOAL C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 3 | 77.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | JUDY'S STAR B2 K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | LUCKY FUN H Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 6.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | ROMANTIC TROVE T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 2 | 18.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | STAR OF WUYI C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | VOYAGE STAR V/TT M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 1 | 28.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | BREEZE OF SPRING CP/TT C Soumillon · K H Ting | C Soumillon | K H Ting | 5 | 6.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | ELIGERE B N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 7 | 31.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 1 | CHIKORITA XB B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 9 | 87.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | GAMEPLAYER STAR CP1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 129.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 13 | LUCKY RUBY B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 6 | 204.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 6 | HONEY BEE CP1/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 13 | 247.0 | 23 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | BREEZE OF SPRING | 21.9% | 4.56 | 9 |
| 2 | 9 | SIGHT SUCCESS | 20.2% | 4.95 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | LUCKY FUN | 13.2% | 7.55 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | FREE FOAL | 11.1% | 8.98 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | STAR OF WUYI | 7.4% | 13.43 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | JUDY'S STAR | 5.9% | 16.85 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | GAMEPLAYER STAR | 5.3% | 18.71 | 12 |
| 8 | 2 | ELIGERE | 4.7% | 21.14 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 | VOYAGE STAR | 3.4% | 29.22 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | ROMANTIC TROVE | 3.0% | 33.52 | 6 |
| 11 | 14 | FIRE BALL | 1.9% | 53.23 | 2 |
| 12 | 1 | CHIKORITA | 0.8% | 122.35 | 11 |
| 13 | 6 | HONEY BEE | 0.6% | 169.19 | 14 |
| 14 | 13 | LUCKY RUBY | 0.4% | 282.46 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 18
PLACE
4 125.5
9 12.5
14 41.5
QUINELLA
9,14 159.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 170.5
4,14 662.5
9,14 62.5
FORECAST
9,14 175
TIERCE
9,14,4 4,164
TRIO
4,9,14 2,334
FIRST 4
3,4,9,14 2,656
QUARTET
9,14,4,3 32,319
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 14
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
10/9 175.5
10/14 261