沙田 · 2020-12-26
第 11場
2020-12-26沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Badel策騎、J Size訓練的JUNEAU PARK勝出，贏出SH。LEWIS獲得亞軍；KA YING EXCELLENT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.1倍大熱門KA YING EXCELLENT跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | JUNEAU PARK 後段發力 1.21.86 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 4 | 12.0 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | LEWIS 後段發力 B/XB/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 7 | 25.0 | SH |
| 3 | 9 | KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 2 | 2.1 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | GOOD BEAUTY 後段發力 B/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 12 | 19.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | CRAIG'S STAR 後段發力 B M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 13 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | EQUALETTA BLITZ 早段領放 B/H1 C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 10 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | AMAZING NEWS B1/TT C Soumillon · C Fownes | C Soumillon | C Fownes | 3 | 7.4 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | KASI FARASI 後段發力 M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 14 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 6 | 69.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | AI ONE 後段發力 XB1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 9 | 74.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | RIGHT CHOICE B N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 1 | 13.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | LEGION OF MERIT B1 C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 5 | 106.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 8 | HAPPY QIJI H/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 11 | 21.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 7 | INDIGENOUS REALM K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 8 | 31.0 | 24-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | KA YING EXCELLENT | 28.8% | 3.47 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | AMAZING NEWS | 18.5% | 5.41 | 7 |
| 3 | 14 | JUNEAU PARK | 12.5% | 8.03 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | CRAIG'S STAR | 6.7% | 14.90 | 5 |
| 5 | 13 | KASI FARASI | 6.5% | 15.36 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | GOOD BEAUTY | 5.4% | 18.50 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | EQUALETTA BLITZ | 5.4% | 18.56 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | RIGHT CHOICE | 4.8% | 20.84 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | LEWIS | 4.1% | 24.47 | 2 |
| 10 | 7 | INDIGENOUS REALM | 2.1% | 46.69 | 14 |
| 11 | 8 | HAPPY QIJI | 1.5% | 64.66 | 13 |
| 12 | 11 | AI ONE | 1.4% | 70.31 | 10 |
| 13 | 10 | LEGION OF MERIT | 1.4% | 72.00 | 12 |
| 14 | 6 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 0.9% | 114.37 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 124.5
PLACE
2 72.5
9 12.5
14 35
QUINELLA
2,14 1,637
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 102
2,14 444.5
9,14 54
FORECAST
14,2 3,704
TIERCE
14,2,9 10,105
TRIO
2,9,14 814
FIRST 4
2,9,12,14 3,346
QUARTET
14,2,9,12 115,151
全部彩池（另 5 項）
10TH DOUBLE
1/2 123
1/14 230.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 23.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,4/2,9,14 19,656
SIX UP
2,11/3,7/7,10/5,12/1,2/2,14 99,116
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
5/1/2 1,153
5/1/14 3,409