沙田 · 2020-12-26
第 7場
2020-12-26沙田第7場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由C L Chau策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的CASIMIRO勝出，贏出2。ALL FOR ST PAUL'S獲得亞軍；SUN OF MAKFI獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.4倍大熱門ROBOT WARRIOR跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CASIMIRO 後段發力 1.34.40 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 2 | 7.1 | 2 |
| 3 | 14 | SUN OF MAKFI 後段發力 A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 4 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS 後段發力 J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 10 | 4.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | FAST PACE 後段發力 H/P N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 7 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | ROBOT WARRIOR 後段發力 V Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 3 | 4.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | LEADING FORTUNE 後段發力 V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 14 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 13 | SHADOW BREAKER 後段發力 SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 6 | 177.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | STAY CHILL 後段發力 T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 13 | 57.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | MERCURIAL XB C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 11 | 50.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | BULLETPROOF B C Soumillon · P F Yiu | C Soumillon | P F Yiu | 9 | 5.3 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | DECISIVE ACTION 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 12 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 5 | TELECOM ROCKET CP A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 1 | 22.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 14 | 1 | CARE FREE PRINCE 早段領放 B C Wong · K L Man | C Wong | K L Man | 8 | 121.0 | 22-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 20.8% | 4.82 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 12.6% | 7.92 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | ROBOT WARRIOR | 10.0% | 10.02 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | TELECOM ROCKET | 8.6% | 11.67 | 13 |
| 5 | 8 | FAST PACE | 8.5% | 11.75 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | CASIMIRO | 8.5% | 11.78 | 1 |
| 7 | 11 | BULLETPROOF | 7.5% | 13.27 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | LEADING FORTUNE | 7.4% | 13.56 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | DECISIVE ACTION | 4.7% | 21.08 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | MERCURIAL | 4.0% | 25.09 | 10 |
| 11 | 14 | SUN OF MAKFI | 2.7% | 37.24 | 3 |
| 12 | 12 | STAY CHILL | 2.1% | 47.28 | 9 |
| 13 | 1 | CARE FREE PRINCE | 1.4% | 69.05 | 14 |
| 14 | 13 | SHADOW BREAKER | 1.2% | 85.77 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 109.5
PLACE
3 23.5
7 34.5
14 35.5
QUINELLA
3,7 293
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 102.5
3,14 160
7,14 149.5
FORECAST
7,3 562
TIERCE
7,3,14 11,317
TRIO
3,7,14 1,437
FIRST 4
3,6,7,14 1,639
QUARTET
7,3,14,6 49,959
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 28
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
11/3 69.5
11/7 770.5
TRIPLE TRIO
3,7,11/2,7,11/3,7,14 4,751,320
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,7,11/2,7,11/Any Combination 95,026