沙田 · 2020-12-26
第 10場
2020-12-26沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、R Gibson訓練的WELLINGTON勝出，贏出2-1/4。PING HAI BRAVO獲得亞軍；VALIANT DREAM獲得季軍。頭馬以1.9倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WELLINGTON 0.56.51 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 8 | 1.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | PING HAI BRAVO E/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 12 | 8.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | VALIANT DREAM C Soumillon · K W Lui | C Soumillon | K W Lui | 2 | 8.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | PRINCE OF GEMS TT J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 14 | 5.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | LIKE THAT B M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | METRO WARRIOR B-/CP2 N Callan · D A Hayes | N Callan | D A Hayes | 11 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 13 | MOERAKI B-/H2 H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 3 | 73.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | TELECOM SMART XB M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 9 | 96.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | PROPICE C L Chau · C Fownes | C L Chau | C Fownes | 6 | 16.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 14 | XPONENTIAL V- V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 5 | 101.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | BALTIC WHISPER TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 13 | 39.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | NOIR RIDER SR M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 10 | 128.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 6 | CIRCUIT SEVEN H/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 4 | 69.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | RUBY STARS B/TT T Piccone · K L Man | T Piccone | K L Man | 1 | 253.0 | 13-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WELLINGTON | 26.9% | 3.72 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | VALIANT DREAM | 14.5% | 6.89 | 3 |
| 3 | 8 | PRINCE OF GEMS | 14.0% | 7.15 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | PING HAI BRAVO | 12.4% | 8.08 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | METRO WARRIOR | 11.1% | 8.97 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | PROPICE | 6.7% | 14.84 | 9 |
| 7 | 12 | LIKE THAT | 4.8% | 20.86 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 2.9% | 34.44 | 13 |
| 9 | 9 | BALTIC WHISPER | 1.7% | 60.27 | 11 |
| 10 | 13 | MOERAKI | 1.6% | 61.35 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | TELECOM SMART | 1.3% | 74.48 | 8 |
| 12 | 14 | XPONENTIAL | 1.2% | 80.75 | 10 |
| 13 | 7 | NOIR RIDER | 0.4% | 251.09 | 12 |
| 14 | 10 | RUBY STARS | 0.4% | 272.27 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 19.5
PLACE
1 12.5
2 20.5
4 22.5
QUINELLA
1,2 85
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 34
1,4 33
2,4 69.5
FORECAST
1,2 148
TIERCE
1,2,4 462
TRIO
1,2,4 125
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 120
QUARTET
1,2,4,8 1,747
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 14
A2 —
9TH DOUBLE
5/1 195.5
5/2 67.5