Sha Tin · 2020-12-26
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-26 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CASIMIRO, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 2, with ALL FOR ST PAUL'S second and SUN OF MAKFI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite ROBOT WARRIOR finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CASIMIRO Closed strongly 1.34.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 2 | 7.1 | 2 |
| 3 | 14 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 4 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 10 | 4.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | FAST PACE Closed strongly H/P N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 7 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly V Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 3 | 4.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 14 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 13 | SHADOW BREAKER Closed strongly SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 6 | 177.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | STAY CHILL Closed strongly T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 13 | 57.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | MERCURIAL XB C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 11 | 50.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | BULLETPROOF B C Soumillon · P F Yiu | C Soumillon | P F Yiu | 9 | 5.3 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 12 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 5 | TELECOM ROCKET CP A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 1 | 22.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 14 | 1 | CARE FREE PRINCE Led early B C Wong · K L Man | C Wong | K L Man | 8 | 121.0 | 22-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 20.8% | 4.82 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 12.6% | 7.92 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | ROBOT WARRIOR | 10.0% | 10.02 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | TELECOM ROCKET | 8.6% | 11.67 | 13 |
| 5 | 8 | FAST PACE | 8.5% | 11.75 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | CASIMIRO | 8.5% | 11.78 | 1 |
| 7 | 11 | BULLETPROOF | 7.5% | 13.27 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | LEADING FORTUNE | 7.4% | 13.56 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | DECISIVE ACTION | 4.7% | 21.08 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | MERCURIAL | 4.0% | 25.09 | 10 |
| 11 | 14 | SUN OF MAKFI | 2.7% | 37.24 | 3 |
| 12 | 12 | STAY CHILL | 2.1% | 47.28 | 9 |
| 13 | 1 | CARE FREE PRINCE | 1.4% | 69.05 | 14 |
| 14 | 13 | SHADOW BREAKER | 1.2% | 85.77 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 109.5
PLACE
3 23.5
7 34.5
14 35.5
QUINELLA
3,7 293
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 102.5
3,14 160
7,14 149.5
FORECAST
7,3 562
TIERCE
7,3,14 11,317
TRIO
3,7,14 1,437
FIRST 4
3,6,7,14 1,639
QUARTET
7,3,14,6 49,959
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 28
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
11/3 69.5
11/7 770.5
TRIPLE TRIO
3,7,11/2,7,11/3,7,14 4,751,320
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,7,11/2,7,11/Any Combination 95,026