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Sha Tin · 2020-12-26

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-26 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GLORIOUS ARTIST, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with MAGNIFICENT second and RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite ELUSIVE STATE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.38.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 GLORIOUS ARTIST Closed strongly 1.38.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 9 10.0 1
2 12 MAGNIFICENT Led early H N Wong · K H Ting 11 89.0 1
3 8 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB Z Purton · C W Chang 10 7.4 1-3/4
4 1 ELUSIVE STATE Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · A T Millard 6 4.1 2-1/4
5 9 SUNSHINE WARRIOR CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 3 11.0 2-3/4
6 2 RED DESERT Closed strongly T Piccone · J Size 13 11.0 4-1/4
7 10 ELITE PATCH B/H/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 5 5.7 5
8 6 BEAUTY LEGACY TT B Shinn · J Size 12 14.0 6-1/2
9 13 STAR PERFORMANCE TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 8.5 8-1/2
10 7 INSAYSHABLE Closed strongly C Soumillon · Y S Tsui 7 15.0 9
11 3 BERLIN TANGO TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 2 69.0 10-1/4
12 4 GREEN LUCK V-/PC1 A Badel · C Fownes 4 29.0 11-3/4
13 11 HOLY HEART PC/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 13.0 31

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORIOUS ARTIST2. MAGNIFICENT+1L3. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+1.75L4. ELUSIVE STATE+2.25L5. SUNSHINE WARRIOR+2.75L6. RED DESERT+4.25L7. ELITE PATCH+5L8. BEAUTY LEGACY+6.5L9. STAR PERFORMANCE+8.5L10. INSAYSHABLE+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HOLY HEART (28.8%) finished 13th — the winner GLORIOUS ARTIST was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 HOLY HEART 28.8% 3.47 13
2 9 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 11.0% 9.06 5
3 4 GREEN LUCK 8.9% 11.27 12
4 1 ELUSIVE STATE 8.8% 11.37 4
5 7 INSAYSHABLE 8.3% 12.00 10
6 10 ELITE PATCH 7.6% 13.17 7
7 8 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 7.2% 13.91 3
8 5 GLORIOUS ARTIST 5.1% 19.56 1
9 6 BEAUTY LEGACY 4.5% 22.16 8
10 2 RED DESERT 4.1% 24.53 6
11 13 STAR PERFORMANCE 3.4% 29.00 9
12 12 MAGNIFICENT 1.5% 67.56 2
13 3 BERLIN TANGO 0.7% 140.76 11
HOLY HEARTSUNSHINE WARRIORGREEN LUCKELUSIVE STATEINSAYSHABLEELITE PATCHRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEGLORIOUS ARTIST — wonBEAUTY LEGACYRED DESERTSTAR PERFORMANCEMAGNIFICENTBERLIN TANGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 104

PLACE

5 27.5

8 23.5

12 241.5

QUINELLA

5,12 5,515

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 118

5,12 1,338.5

8,12 1,313

FORECAST

5,12 4,148

TIERCE

5,12,8 46,155

TRIO

5,8,12 12,435

FIRST 4

1,5,8,12 5,358

QUARTET

5,12,8,1 211,989

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 39

8TH DOUBLE

10/5 5,120.5

10/12 4,636