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Sha Tin · 2020-12-26

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GLORIOUS ARTIST Closed strongly 1.38.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 9 10.0 1
2 0 MAGNIFICENT Led early H N Wong · K H Ting 11 89.0 1
3 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB Z Purton · C W Chang 10 7.4 1-3/4
4 0 ELUSIVE STATE Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · A T Millard 6 4.1 2-1/4
5 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 3 11.0 2-3/4
6 0 RED DESERT Closed strongly T Piccone · J Size 13 11.0 4-1/4
7 0 ELITE PATCH B/H/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 5 5.7 5
8 0 BEAUTY LEGACY TT B Shinn · J Size 12 14.0 6-1/2
9 0 STAR PERFORMANCE TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 8.5 8-1/2
10 0 INSAYSHABLE Closed strongly C Soumillon · Y S Tsui 7 15.0 9
11 0 BERLIN TANGO TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 2 69.0 10-1/4
12 0 GREEN LUCK V-/PC1 A Badel · C Fownes 4 29.0 11-3/4
13 0 HOLY HEART PC/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 13.0 31

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-26 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GLORIOUS ARTIST, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with MAGNIFICENT second and RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite ELUSIVE STATE finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORIOUS ARTIST—2. MAGNIFICENT+1L3. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+1.75L4. ELUSIVE STATE+2.25L5. SUNSHINE WARRIOR+2.75L6. RED DESERT+4.25L7. ELITE PATCH+5L8. BEAUTY LEGACY+6.5L9. STAR PERFORMANCE+8.5L10. INSAYSHABLE+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HOLY HEART (28.8%) finished 13th — the winner GLORIOUS ARTIST was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HOLY HEART 28.8% 3.47 13
2 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 11.0% 9.06 5
3 0 GREEN LUCK 8.9% 11.27 12
4 0 ELUSIVE STATE 8.8% 11.37 4
5 0 INSAYSHABLE 8.3% 12.00 10
6 0 ELITE PATCH 7.6% 13.17 7
7 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 7.2% 13.91 3
8 0 GLORIOUS ARTIST 5.1% 19.56 1
9 0 BEAUTY LEGACY 4.5% 22.16 8
10 0 RED DESERT 4.1% 24.53 6
11 0 STAR PERFORMANCE 3.4% 29.00 9
12 0 MAGNIFICENT 1.5% 67.56 2
13 0 BERLIN TANGO 0.7% 140.76 11
HOLY HEARTSUNSHINE WARRIORGREEN LUCKELUSIVE STATEINSAYSHABLEELITE PATCHRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEGLORIOUS ARTIST — wonBEAUTY LEGACYRED DESERTSTAR PERFORMANCEMAGNIFICENTBERLIN TANGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 104

PLACE

5 27.5

8 23.5

12 241.5

QUINELLA

5,12 5,515

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 118

5,12 1,338.5

8,12 1,313

FORECAST

5,12 4,148

TIERCE

5,12,8 46,155

TRIO

5,8,12 12,435

FIRST 4

1,5,8,12 5,358

QUARTET

5,12,8,1 211,989

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 39

A1 —

8TH DOUBLE

10/5 5,120.5

10/12 4,636