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Sha Tin · 2020-12-26

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-26 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CLEAR CHOICE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-1/4, with TURIN REDSTAR second and TANGMERE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite PING HAI TREASURE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.48.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CLEAR CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT 1.48.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 12 7.8 2-1/4
2 7 TURIN REDSTAR Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C H Yip 11 23.0 2-1/4
3 11 TANGMERE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 13 55.0 3
4 4 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly T Piccone · Y S Tsui 1 40.0 4-1/2
5 6 PING HAI TREASURE Closed strongly P J Moreira · J Size 3 3.4 5
6 5 GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly H/XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 10 9.5 5-1/4
7 2 VINCY Closed strongly XB/V2/TT C Soumillon · D J Whyte 5 6.7 5-1/4
8 9 PURE LEGEND V A Badel · C Fownes 7 4.9 6-1/2
9 13 PEACH BLOSSOMS B/TT H W Lai · D J Hall 2 104.0 8
10 8 THE HULK PC/H1 C Schofield · C Fownes 9 7.7 8-1/2
11 10 HANG'S DECISION B M F Poon · W Y So 4 72.0 9-1/4
12 12 DEAL MAKER H M Chadwick · K H Ting 6 12.0 9-1/4
13 1 TOUCH OF LUCK Led early CP-/V1 V Borges · D J Whyte 8 56.0 56-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CLEAR CHOICE2. TURIN REDSTAR+2.25L3. TANGMERE+3L4. GREAT TREASURE+4.5L5. PING HAI TREASURE+5L6. GOD OF DRAGON+5.25L7. VINCY+5.25L8. PURE LEGEND+6.5L9. PEACH BLOSSOMS+8L10. THE HULK+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PING HAI TREASURE (30.3%) finished 5th — the winner CLEAR CHOICE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 PING HAI TREASURE 30.3% 3.30 5
2 8 THE HULK 11.6% 8.61 10
3 2 VINCY 11.5% 8.68 7
4 5 GOD OF DRAGON 9.4% 10.69 6
5 3 CLEAR CHOICE 8.4% 11.95 1
6 4 GREAT TREASURE 5.1% 19.78 4
7 12 DEAL MAKER 4.8% 20.75 12
8 9 PURE LEGEND 4.5% 22.41 8
9 1 TOUCH OF LUCK 3.8% 25.99 13
10 11 TANGMERE 3.1% 31.94 3
11 7 TURIN REDSTAR 2.7% 37.50 2
12 10 HANG'S DECISION 2.5% 40.15 11
13 13 PEACH BLOSSOMS 2.3% 42.76 9
PING HAI TREASURETHE HULKVINCYGOD OF DRAGONCLEAR CHOICE — wonGREAT TREASUREDEAL MAKERPURE LEGENDTOUCH OF LUCKTANGMERETURIN REDSTARHANG'S DECISIONPEACH BLOSSOMS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 78

PLACE

3 22.5

7 63.5

11 172.5

QUINELLA

3,7 798

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 220.5

3,11 891

7,11 1,464

FORECAST

3,7 2,004

TIERCE

3,7,11 57,682

TRIO

3,7,11 16,936

FIRST 4

3,4,7,11 44,219

QUARTET

3,7,11,4 1,012,132

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,9,14/3,7,11 1,703,455

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 22.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE

9/3 240

9/7 63.5