Sha Tin · 2020-12-26
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-26 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ABOVE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with STIMULATION second and BUNDLE OF DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ABOVE Closed strongly B 2.02.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 7 | 2.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | STIMULATION Closed strongly B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz | C Soumillon | A S Cruz | 3 | 6.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 1 | 4.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 9 | 59.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 6.9 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | LIGHT MY DAY Led early CP/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 2 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | FULL POWER B/XB N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 5 | 5.9 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | INDIGENOUS STAR TT- M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 4 | 39.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | BRAVE KING XB-/H1/TT1 T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 8 | 21.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | ABOVE | 21.5% | 4.66 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | FULL POWER | 12.4% | 8.07 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | STIMULATION | 12.1% | 8.24 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | BRAVE KING | 6.9% | 14.58 | 9 |
| 6 | 6 | LIGHT MY DAY | 5.0% | 19.96 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA | 4.8% | 20.69 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | MAGNETISM | 4.6% | 21.55 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | INDIGENOUS STAR | 4.5% | 22.31 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 26
PLACE
1 13
2 17.5
4 14
QUINELLA
1,2 82
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 31
1,4 28.5
2,4 35.5
FORECAST
1,2 105
TIERCE
1,2,4 358
TRIO
1,2,4 102
FIRST 4
1,2,4,7 680
QUARTET
1,2,4,7 6,608
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 18.5
A2 —