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Sha Tin · 2020-12-26

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-26 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ABOVE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with STIMULATION second and BUNDLE OF DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.02.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 ABOVE Closed strongly B 2.02.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard 7 2.6 1/2
2 2 STIMULATION Closed strongly B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz 3 6.3 1/2
3 4 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 1 4.3 1-3/4
4 7 MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 9 59.0 2
5 9 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · P O'Sullivan 6 6.9 3
6 6 LIGHT MY DAY Led early CP/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 2 25.0 4
7 5 FULL POWER B/XB N Callan · R Gibson 5 5.9 5
8 8 INDIGENOUS STAR TT- M F Poon · C W Chang 4 39.0 5-3/4
9 3 BRAVE KING XB-/H1/TT1 T Piccone · A S Cruz 8 21.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ABOVE2. STIMULATION+0.5L3. BUNDLE OF DELIGHT+1.75L4. MAGNETISM+2L5. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA+3L6. LIGHT MY DAY+4L7. FULL POWER+5L8. INDIGENOUS STAR+5.75L9. BRAVE KING+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BUNDLE OF DELIGHT (28.2%) finished 3rd — the winner ABOVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 28.2% 3.55 3
2 1 ABOVE 21.5% 4.66 1
3 5 FULL POWER 12.4% 8.07 7
4 2 STIMULATION 12.1% 8.24 2
5 3 BRAVE KING 6.9% 14.58 9
6 6 LIGHT MY DAY 5.0% 19.96 6
7 9 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 4.8% 20.69 5
8 7 MAGNETISM 4.6% 21.55 4
9 8 INDIGENOUS STAR 4.5% 22.31 8
BUNDLE OF DELIGHTABOVE — wonFULL POWERSTIMULATIONBRAVE KINGLIGHT MY DAYKUNGFUMASTER PANDAMAGNETISMINDIGENOUS STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 26

PLACE

1 13

2 17.5

4 14

QUINELLA

1,2 82

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 31

1,4 28.5

2,4 35.5

FORECAST

1,2 105

TIERCE

1,2,4 358

TRIO

1,2,4 102

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 680

QUARTET

1,2,4,7 6,608

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 18.5

A2