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Sha Tin · 2020-12-26

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 10 runners

Result

Official · 2.01.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B 2.01.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 8 58.0 1-1/4
2 0 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly A Hamelin · W Y So 4 15.0 1-1/4
3 0 RELIABLE TEAM Led early CP K C Leung · F C Lor 3 11.0 1-1/2
4 0 HELENE LEADINGSTAR Closed strongly XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 2 10.0 1-1/2
5 0 PANFIELD TT A Badel · A T Millard 1 9.1 1-3/4
6 0 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 6 3.5 1-3/4
7 0 GOLDEN SPECTRUM Closed strongly CP/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 9 14.0 2
8 0 LAKESHORE EAGLE B T Piccone · W Y So 5 12.0 2
9 0 THINKIN' BIG B/XB J Moreira · D J Whyte 10 6.1 5-3/4
10 0 ENJOYING B/XB C Soumillon · D J Whyte 7 4.1 7

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-26 was Class 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. FLYING QUEST, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with TIANCHI MONSTER second and RELIABLE TEAM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite BUTTERFIELD finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING QUEST—2. TIANCHI MONSTER+1.25L3. RELIABLE TEAM+1.5L4. HELENE LEADINGSTAR+1.5L5. PANFIELD+1.75L6. BUTTERFIELD+1.75L7. GOLDEN SPECTRUM+2L8. LAKESHORE EAGLE+2L9. THINKIN' BIG+5.75L10. ENJOYING+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick THINKIN' BIG (27.6%) finished 9th — the winner FLYING QUEST was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 THINKIN' BIG 27.6% 3.62 9
2 0 BUTTERFIELD 24.4% 4.09 6
3 0 ENJOYING 12.5% 8.01 10
4 0 LAKESHORE EAGLE 7.4% 13.59 8
5 0 TIANCHI MONSTER 6.3% 15.81 2
6 0 PANFIELD 5.3% 18.90 5
7 0 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 4.9% 20.45 7
8 0 HELENE LEADINGSTAR 4.0% 25.23 4
9 0 RELIABLE TEAM 3.9% 25.47 3
10 0 FLYING QUEST 3.7% 27.21 1
THINKIN' BIGBUTTERFIELDENJOYINGLAKESHORE EAGLETIANCHI MONSTERPANFIELDGOLDEN SPECTRUMHELENE LEADINGSTARRELIABLE TEAMFLYING QUEST — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 588

PLACE

3 53

7 30

10 114.5

QUINELLA

7,10 2,389

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 175.5

3,10 787.5

7,10 484.5

FORECAST

10,7 3,662

TIERCE

10,7,3 44,117

TRIO

3,7,10 5,235

FIRST 4

1,3,7,10 7,632

QUARTET

10,7,3,1 212,428

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,14/3,7,10 1,465,631

3 PICK 1

A3 29

A2 —

A1 —

7TH DOUBLE

7/7 153

7/10 4,566